一.Ingxenye yesibili yesibikezelo esiyisisekelo

1.1 Isibikezelo Sokukhiqiza

Ngokusho kocwaningo lwe-Longzhong Information, imboni yomkhiqizo we-aniline ihlela ukwakha amathani angu-385,000 wamandla okukhiqiza engxenyeni yesibili ka-2023, futhi alukho uhlelo lwamandla okuhoxiswa. Amandla amasha okukhiqiza asatshalaliswa kakhulu eNingizimu ye-China, futhi ibhizinisi elihlongozwayo lihlonyiswe ngemishini yemikhiqizo esezingeni eliphansi, ukuthuthukiswa kwesikali sochungechunge lwezimboni, kanye nokwehliswa kokuthengwa kwempahla nezokuthutha nezinye izindleko zokusebenza.

Ngemuva kokukhululwa komthamo omusha wokukhiqiza i-aniline esikhathini esizayo, izoshintsha kakhulu iphethini yokuphakelwa kwezilwane zasekhaya, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-aniline eNingizimu ye-China kuzosakazeka emafektri aseduze nomfula endaweni eseduze, kunciphise ngempumelelo izindleko zokuthengwa kwempahla eluhlaza. . Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, i-Yantai Wanhua ihlele ukulungisa kabusha, futhi zonke izisetshenziswa zayo ze-aniline-MDI zayeka, noma zathinta ukuhlinzekwa kwe-aniline kwamanye amakhasimende ayo esikhathi eside. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uFujian Wanhua uhlela ukufaka ukukhiqizwa ngoSepthemba, okunomthelela omkhulu ngentengo ye-aniline eningizimu, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ye-aniline engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka ingase ibe yi-9000-12000 yuan / ithani

1.2 Isibikezelo Sokusetshenziswa

Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, imishini yokulungisa i-polymerization yasekhaya ye-MDI igxilisiwe ngo-Agasti, Novemba no-December, idivayisi iyonke kulindeleke ukuthi inciphe kakhulu, ngaphezu kwamadivayisi aphesheya ngo-Julayi nango-Agasti kukhona amasethi amaningi okulungiswa kwedivayisi, iyonke. Ukuncishiswa kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, intengo yasekhaya iyonke ingase ibe nokukhushulwa okuncane, kodwa ngo-August no-September ngenxa yokufika kwehlobo, izinga lokushisa eliphezulu lezulu lingase libe nomthelela ekuthwalweni okuphelele komfula, ukukhawulela amandla, ukukhiqizwa okulinganiselwe. Kanye nemboni yemishini yasendlini phakathi nesizini engasebenzi, intengo kunzima ukuyisekela. Ngo-Okthoba noNovemba, njengoba izinto zikagesi zasendlini ezansi nomfula kanye nezimboni zamapayipi zingena enkathini yesikhathi ephakeme kakhulu, futhi ukunakekelwa okunengqondo kwamanye amadivaysi kulindeleke, kungenzeka ukuqhubeka nokukhuphuka. Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, okugxilwe kakhulu ekuncipheni kokunikezwayo kanye nokulandelelwa kohlangothi lwesidingo. Uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi intengo ye-MDI eyenziwe nge-polymerized engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka igcinwa ku-14300-16300 yuan/ton, isidingo kulindeleke ukuthi sibuyele kabusha ngonyaka, inani lentengo engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka liphakeme kancane kunezinga. engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, futhi intengo elindelekile igcinwa ku-15500-17000 yuan/ton.

1.3 Isibikezelo sengqikithi yokungenisa/inetha lokuthekelisa

Njengamanje, ukutholakala kwasekhaya kanye nesidingo se-aniline kulinganiselwe, futhi umdlandla wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe uyancipha. Naphezu kokwehliswa kwezindleko zokukhiqiza i-aniline yasekhaya, isidingo esingaphansi komfula sinamandla uma kuqhathaniswa, esinokusekela okuthile ngentengo ephezulu ye-aniline. Kulindeleke ukuthi inani le-aniline ethunyelwa ngaphandle engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka ngeke lishintshe kakhulu uma liqhathaniswa nengxenye yokuqala yonyaka, kodwa akushiwo ukuthi i-aniline esele izodayiswa phesheya kwezilwandle ngemuva kokuthi i-Fujian Wanhua isiqalile ukusebenza. .

1.4 Isibikezelo sebhalansi yokuhlinzeka nokufunwa

二.Izindleko zengxenye yesibili yesibikezelo

Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, intengo yesibikezelo se-benzene emsulwa ingu-6280-6800 yuan/ton, okubonisa inkambiso yokukhuphuka kuqala bese yehla.

Mayelana nowoyela ongahluziwe, amanani kawoyela engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka avule ithuba lokuphinda abuyele emuva, okukhombisa ukuthambekela kokukhuphuka kuqala bese ehla futhi ngokuphelele, futhi isilinganiso sentengo yanyanga zonke singaguquguquka ebangeni lama-75-78 US. amadola/umphongolo, onobubanzi obuncane bokuguquguquka.

Mayelana nokuhlinzekwa, ingxenye enkulu yokwandiswa kwe-benzene emsulwa ngo-2023 kuqedwe engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, sekuqaliswe amathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezi-3 zamayunithi amasha e-petroleum benzene ne-hydrobenzene, kanye ne-benzene emsulwa. ukukhiqizwa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nengxenye yokuqala yonyaka. Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, amathani ayi-100,000 kuphela amandla e-Anqing Petrochemical anwetshwa ngoJulayi, futhi amathani angama-200,000 eLongjiang Chemical asanda kwakhiwa ekupheleni konyaka. Kodwa-ke, uBenhogenated Benzhene usene-puyang zhhongghui amathani angama-500,000, chongqing hufeng 200,000 amathani, i-ningxia Zheenxy 200,000 amathani, amathani ama-uHenan jinyuan zhensxing amathani ama-200,000 ahlelelwe ukukhiqizwa ngoLwesine ikota.

Ngokwesidingo, ukukhiqizwa kwe-benzene ehlanzekile engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kwakugxiliwe, kuhlanganise nesethi yesine ye-styrene ye-Zhejiang Petrochemical, i-styrene ye-Anqing Petrochemical, i-Hengli entsha phenol ne-adipic acid, i-Fujian Wanhua aniline, i-Lusi, i-Shenyuan. , I-Baling Petrochemical i-caprolactam entsha nezinye izinto ezihlelelwe ukuqaliswa, kanye ne-Qingdao Bay, i-Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, eyahlehliswa engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka. Ngokungeziwe ekwehleni okujwayelekile komfula, isidingo se-octane esivela ku-ethylbenzene ne-cyclohexane kulindeleke ukuthi sinikeze amandla ekusetshenzisweni kwe-benzene okumsulwa. Kodwa-ke, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, izinhlobo ezihlukene zomfula ngokuvamile zihlangabezane nokwehla komthwalo wemboni ngemva kokunwetshwa komthamo, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwe-benzene emsulwa kwakungaphansi komthamo wokukhiqiza. Esimweni sokusetshenziswa kokugcina engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka akukabibikho ithemba, kulindeleke ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-benzene emsulwa kuzobuyekezwa ngokwehle kakhulu kunevelu yethiyori.

Mayelana nokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, isidingo sokugcina e-United States naseYurophu siyaqhubeka sidangele, futhi inani eliphakeme lokuhamba ehlobo e-United States engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka lizophela ngoSepthemba, ukuzimisela kweNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia ukuthumela i-benzene ehlanzekile eChina. kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi umthamo wokungenisa ungase ubuyele ezingeni lamathani angu-250-300,000/ngenyanga.

Sekukonke, intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka ilinganiselwe, futhi ukusekelwa kwezindleko kuyahlanganiswa. Idivayisi yokukhiqiza ithiyori ephansi komfula idlula ukufakwa okusha kwe-petroleum benzene ne-hydrobenzene, kodwa izinga langempela lokusebenza kulindeleke ukuthi lehle lilonke, futhi umthamo wokungenisa kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke, ngakho uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa kwe-benzene emsulwa luyathuthukiswa, kodwa ububanzi bulinganiselwe. Intengo ye-benzene emsulwa ilindeleke ngekota yesithathu ngenxa yokubuyiswa kwemishini yokulungisa eyehla nomfula kanye nokwakhiwa kwemishini emisha ukuze kutholwe amandla akhuphukayo entengo, kodwa ngenxa yenzuzo ebuthakathaka engahlanganisi umfula, i-benzene emsulwa yaphakama phezulu. okuphansi, ngokukhishwa komthamo wokukhiqiza we-hydrobenzene kwikota yesine, uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka nesidingo luphinde lwaphendukela ekuhlinzekeni okuningi, khona-ke intengo kulindeleke ukuthi ibonise ukwehla.

Ngekota yesibili, i-aniline yathintwa isidingo esibuthakathaka futhi yaqala ukungena esiteshini esibheke phansi. Ngokusekelwe ekulungisweni okuhleliwe kwe-Yantai Wanhua ngo-Agasti, uma uhlelo lokulungisa kabusha lufezwa njengoba luhleliwe, lungakwazi ukudonsa imakethe ye-aniline. Kodwa-ke, ngoSepthemba, amayunithi e-Fujian Wanhua kanye ne-Chongqing Changfeng 2 aqaliswa ukusebenza, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kwe-aniline eNingizimu ye-China naseNingizimu-ntshonalanga ye-China kwakhula kakhulu, kwacebisa imithombo yokuthenga eseduze nomfula. Sekukonke, ikota yesibili kanye nekota yesithathu yemakethe ye-aniline ibuthakathaka, kodwa engxenyeni yesine, abanye abaphansi baqala ukuthola ama-oda ngonyaka ozayo, isidingo sezinto zokusetshenziswa sinokwenyuka okuthile, ikota yesine yamanani entengo ye-aniline kulindeleke ukuthi iphinde ibuyele emuva. uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yesithathu.