一. Ingxenye yesibili yesibikezelo esiyisisekelo

1.1 Isibikezelo Sokukhiqiza

Ngokusho kocwaningo lweLongzhong Information, imboni yemikhiqizo ye-aniline ihlela ukwakha amathani angu-385,000 omthamo wokukhiqiza engxenyeni yesibili ka-2023, futhi akukho uhlelo lomthamo wokukhipha. Umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza usatshalaliswa kakhulu eNingizimu yeShayina, futhi ibhizinisi elihlongozwayo lihlonyiswe ngamadivayisi omkhiqizo angezansi, ukuthuthukiswa kwesikali sochungechunge lwezimboni, kanye nokwehliswa kwezindleko zokuthenga nezokuthutha kanye nezinye izindleko zokusebenza.

Ngemva kokukhishwa kwamandla okukhiqiza i-aniline entsha esikhathini esizayo, kuzoshintsha kakhulu iphethini yokuphakelwa kwe-aniline yasekhaya, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-aniline eNingizimu yeShayina kuzosakazekela ezimbonini ezizungezile eziseduze, kunciphisa ngempumelelo izindleko zokuthengwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa ezingezansi. Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, iYantai Wanhua yahlela ukulungisa, futhi wonke amadivayisi ayo e-aniline-MDI ayeka, noma athinta ukunikezwa kwe-aniline kwamanye amakhasimende ayo esikhathi eside. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iFujian Wanhua ihlela ukufaka umkhiqizo ngoSepthemba, okunomthelela omkhulu entengo ye-aniline eningizimu, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ye-aniline engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka ingaba yi-9000-12000 yuan/ton.

1.2 Isibikezelo Sokusetshenziswa

Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, amadivayisi okulungisa i-MDI ye-polymerization yasekhaya agxilwe ngo-Agasti, ngoNovemba nangoDisemba, idivayisi iyonke kulindeleke ukuthi inciphe kakhulu, ngaphezu kwamadivayisi aphesheya kwezilwandle ngoJulayi nango-Agasti kunezinhlobo eziningi zokunakekelwa kwamadivayisi, ukuncipha kokunikezwa okuphelele, intengo iyonke yasekhaya ingaba nokukhula okuncane, kodwa ngo-Agasti nangoSepthemba ngenxa yokufika kwehlobo, isimo sezulu esishisayo singathinta umthwalo ophelele ophansi, ukukhawulelwa kwamandla, ukukhiqizwa okulinganiselwe. Kanye nemboni yemishini yasekhaya engenela isizini engaphandle, intengo kunzima ukuyisekela. Ngo-Okthoba nangoNovemba, njengoba izimboni zemishini yasekhaya nepayipi eziphansi zingena esizini yendabuko, kanye nokugcinwa okunengqondo kwamadivayisi athile kulindeleke, kungenzeka ukuthi kuqhubeke kukhuphuke. Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ukugxila okuyinhloko kukunciphisa ukunikezwa kanye nokulandelwa kwesidingo. Uma sibheka ukuthi intengo ye-polymerized MDI engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka igcinwa ku-14300-16300 yuan/ton, isidingo kulindeleke ukuthi siphinde sikhule ngonyaka, intengo emaphakathi engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka iphakeme kancane kunezinga engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, kanti intengo elindelekile igcinwa ku-15500-17000 yuan/ton.

1.3 Isibikezelo sokungenisa/ukuthumela ngaphandle okuphelele

Njengamanje, ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo se-aniline yasekhaya kuyalingana, futhi intshiseko yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe iyancipha. Naphezu kokwehla kwezindleko zokukhiqiza i-aniline yasekhaya, isidingo esingezansi sinamandla kakhulu, okusekela intengo ephezulu ye-aniline. Kulindeleke ukuthi inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-aniline engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka ngeke lishintshe kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nengxenye yokuqala yonyaka, kodwa akukacaci ukuthi i-aniline eyengeziwe izothengiswa kwamanye amazwe ngemuva kokuthi iFujian Wanhua iqale ukusebenza.

1.4 Isibikezelo sebhalansi yokuphakelwa kanye nesidingo

Izindleko zengxenye yesibili yesibikezelo

Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, intengo ebikezelwe ye-benzene emsulwa ingu-6280-6800 yuan/ton, okubonisa ukuthambekela kokukhuphuka kokuqala bese kwehla.

Ngokuphathelene nowoyela ongahluziwe, amanani kawoyela engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka abonise ithuba lokubuyela emuva, okubonisa ukuthambekela kokukhuphuka kuqala bese kwehla futhi ngokuphelele, futhi isilinganiso sentengo yanyanga zonke singase sishintshe sibe phakathi kwamadola aseMelika angu-75-78 ngomgqomo, ngebanga elincane lokuguquguquka.

Ngokuphathelene nokuphakelwa, iningi elikhulu lokwandiswa kwe-benzene emsulwa ngo-2023 seliqediwe engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, lapho sekuqaliswe khona amathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezintathu amayunithi amasha e-benzene kaphethiloli kanye ne-hydrobenzene, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-benzene emsulwa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi kubonise ukwanda okukhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nengxenye yokuqala yonyaka. Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, kwandiswe amathani ayi-100,000 kuphela omthamo we-Anqing Petrochemical ngoJulayi, kanti amathani angu-200,000 e-Longjiang Chemical asanda kwakhiwa ekupheleni konyaka. Kodwa-ke, i-benzene ene-hydrogen isenayo i-Puyang Zhonghui engamathani angu-500,000, i-Chongqing Huafeng engamathani angu-200,000, i-Ningxia Tongde Love engamathani angu-100,000, i-Zaozhuang Zhenxing engamathani angu-200,000, i-Henan Jinyuan Phase II engamathani angu-200,000 kanye namanye amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.2 amadivayisi amasha ahlelelwe ukufakwa ekukhiqizweni kwikota yesine.

Ngokuphathelene nesidingo, ukukhiqizwa kwe-benzene emsulwa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kwagxilwa kakhulu, okuhlanganisa isethi yesine ye-styrene ye-Zhejiang Petrochemical, i-styrene ye-Anqing Petrochemical, i-Hengli new phenol kanye ne-adipic acid, i-Fujian Wanhua aniline, i-Lusi, i-Shenyuan, i-Baling Petrochemical new caprolactam kanye namanye amadivayisi ahlelelwe ukusebenza, kanye ne-Qingdao Bay, i-Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, eyahlehliswa engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka. Ngaphezu kwesidingo sendabuko se-downstream, isidingo se-octane esivela ku-ethylbenzene kanye ne-cyclohexane kulindeleke ukuthi sinikeze amandla okusetshenziswa kwe-benzene emsulwa. Kodwa-ke, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, izinhlobo ze-downstream ngokuvamile zihlangabezane nokwehla komthwalo wemboni ngemuva kokwandiswa kwamandla, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwe-benzene emsulwa kwakuphansi kunamandla okukhiqiza. Ngokwesimo sokusetshenziswa kokugcina engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, akukabi nethemba, kulindeleke ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-benzene emsulwa kuzobuyekezwa kakhulu kwehle kunenani lethiyori.

Ngokuphathelene nokungeniswa kwezimpahla kwamanye amazwe, isidingo sokugcina e-United States naseYurophu siyaqhubeka nokuncipha, futhi inani eliphakeme lokuhamba ehlobo e-United States engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka lizophela ngoSepthemba, ukuzimisela kweNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia ukuthumela i-benzene emsulwa eShayina kulindeleke ukuthi kwande engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi inani lokungeniswa kwezimpahla kwamanye amazwe lingabuyela ezingeni lamathani angu-250-300,000 ngenyanga.

Sekukonke, intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka izinzile, futhi ukwesekwa kwezindleko kuhlanganisiwe. Idivayisi yokukhiqiza engezansi idlula ukufakwa okusha kwe-benzene kaphethiloli kanye ne-hydrobenzene, kodwa izinga lokusebenza langempela kulindeleke ukuthi lehle lilonke, futhi ivolumu yokungenisa kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke, ngakho-ke uhlangothi lokuphakelwa kanye nesidingo se-benzene emsulwa luyathuthuka, kodwa ububanzi bunqunyelwe. Intengo ye-benzene emsulwa kulindeleke ukuthi ikhiqizwe kwikota yesithathu ngenxa yokubuya kwemishini yokulungisa engezansi kanye nokwakhiwa kwemishini emisha ukuze kutholakale amandla akhuphukayo entengo, kodwa ngenxa yenzuzo ebuthakathaka yokungahlanganisi engezansi, i-benzene emsulwa ikhuphuke phezulu kwephansi, ngokukhululwa kwamandla okukhiqiza e-hydrobenzene kwikota yesine, uhlangothi lokuphakelwa kanye nesidingo luphinde lwaphenduka lwaba ukunikezwa okuningi, khona-ke intengo kulindeleke ukuthi ibonise umkhuba wokwehla.

Kwikota yesibili, i-aniline yathinteka yisidingo esibuthakathaka futhi yaqala ukungena emgudwini ophansi. Ngokusekelwe ekuguqulweni okuhleliwe kweYantai Wanhua ngo-Agasti, uma uhlelo lokuguqulwa lugcwaliseka njengoba kuhleliwe, lungase lukwazi ukukhulisa imakethe ye-aniline. Kodwa-ke, ngoSepthemba, amayunithi e-Fujian Wanhua kanye ne-Chongqing Changfeng 2 aqaliswa ukusebenza, futhi ukunikezwa kwe-aniline eNingizimu yeShayina naseNingizimu-ntshonalanga yeShayina kwanda kakhulu, kwacebisa imithombo yokuthenga ezungezile. Sekukonke, ikota yesibili kanye nekota yesithathu yemakethe ye-aniline kwaba buthaka, kodwa kwikota yesine, amanye ama-oda aqala ukuthola ama-oda onyaka ozayo, isidingo sezinto zokusetshenziswa sinokukhuphuka okuthile, ikota yesine yamanani e-aniline kulindeleke ukuthi ibuye uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yesithathu.