Ingabe indawo yemakethe kamanyolo ohlanganisiwe izothuthuka ngo-2024? Ingabe imakethe izoshintshashintsha? Okulandelayo ukuhlaziywa okujulile komkhuba wesikhathi esizayo kamanyolo ohlanganisiwe ngokombono wemvelo enkulu, inqubomgomo, iphethini yokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo, izindleko nenzuzo, kanye nokuhlaziywa kwesimo sokuncintisana embonini.

1. Ukusimama komnotho womhlaba wonke kuhamba kancane, futhi umnotho waseShayina ubhekene namathuba nezinselele

Ngaphansi kwethonya lezingozi eziningi ezifana nokuzimela, i-geopolitics, izingxabano zempi, ukwehla kwamandla emali, izikweletu zamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kwezezimboni, ukukhula kokuhweba kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kuye kwehla kakhulu, kanti ukululama komnotho womhlaba wonke ngo-2024 kuhamba kancane futhi kungalingani, futhi ukungaqiniseki kuyanda kakhulu.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umnotho waseShayina uzobhekana namathuba nezinselele eziningi. Ithuba elikhulu kakhulu lisekukhuthazweni okuqhubekayo “kwengqalasizinda entsha” kanye namasu “okujikeleza kabili”. Lezi zinqubomgomo ezimbili zizokhuthaza ngamandla ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni zasekhaya futhi zithuthukise amandla angaphakathi okuqhuba umnotho. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umkhuba womhlaba wonke wokuvikela ukuhweba usaqhubeka, okuletha ingcindezi enkulu ekuthunyelweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kweShayina.

Ngokombono wesimo semvelo esikhulu, amathuba okuba umnotho womhlaba ubuthakathaka ngonyaka ozayo makhulu, futhi impahla ingase incishiswe kancane, kodwa kusadingeka ukucabangela ukungaqiniseki okubangelwa ukuphikisana kwezepolitiki emakethe. Isimo sendawo esingcono kulindeleke ukuthi senze kube lula ukubuyisela amanani kamanyolo wasekhaya ekushintsheni kwendawo okunengqondo.

2, izinsiza zikamanyolo zinezimfanelo eziqinile, futhi izinqubomgomo ziqondisa intuthuko yemboni

UMnyango Wezolimo Nezindaba Zasemakhaya ukhiphe isaziso esithi “Uhlelo Lokusebenza Lokunciphisa Umanyolo Wamakhemikhali ngo-2025”, oludinga ukuthi ngo-2025, ukusetshenziswa kukazwelonke komanyolo wamakhemikhali wezolimo kufanele kufinyelele ukwehla okuzinzile nokuzinzile. Ukusebenza okuqondile yilokhu: ngo-2025, ingxenye yendawo yokufaka umanyolo wemvelo izokwanda ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwama-5, izinga lokumbozwa kokuhlolwa kwenhlabathi kanye nobuchwepheshe bokufaka umanyolo wefomula wezitshalo ezinkulu ezweni lizohlala lizinzile ngaphezu kwama-90%, kanye nezinga lokusetshenziswa komanyolo wezitshalo ezintathu ezinkulu zokudla ezweni lizofika kuma-43%. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngokusho kwe-“Uhlelo Lweminyaka Eyishumi Nane” Imibono yokuthuthukiswa kwe-“Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” ye-phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, imboni yomanyolo we-compound iyaqhubeka nokuthatha ukuthuthukiswa okuluhlaza, ukuguqulwa kanye nokuthuthukiswa, ikhwalithi kanye nokuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kahle njengomgomo ojwayelekile, futhi izinga le-compound lizothuthukiswa kakhulu.

Ngaphansi kwesizinda "sokulawulwa kabili kwamandla", "izinga lekhabhoni ezimbili", ukuvikeleka kokudla, kanye "nokutholakala okuzinzile kanye nentengo" kamanyolo, ngokombono wendlela yokuthuthukiswa kwemboni, ikusasa likamanyolo ohlanganisiwe kudingeka liqhubeke nokuthuthukisa inqubo nokuthuthukisa inqubo yokukhiqiza ukuze kongiwe amandla futhi kuncishiswe ukukhishwa kwegesi; Ngokuphathelene nezinhlobo, kubalulekile ukukhiqiza umanyolo osezingeni eliphezulu ohlangabezana nezidingo zezolimo ezisezingeni eliphezulu; Enkambisweni yokufaka isicelo, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthuthukisa izinga lokusetshenziswa kukamanyolo.

3. Kuzoba nobunzima enkambisweni yokwenza ngcono ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo

Ngokombono wohlelo kanye nokufakwa okwakhiwayo, ijubane lokuhlelwa kwesisekelo sokukhiqiza sikazwelonke samabhizinisi amakhulu alikayeki, futhi isu lokuhlanganisa ngokuqondile linokubaluleka okukhulu okusebenzayo ekwandeni kwenzuzo yamabhizinisi kamanyolo ohlanganisiwe, ngoba umkhuba wokuhlanganiswa kwezimboni, ikakhulukazi amabhizinisi anezinzuzo zezinsizakusebenza kanye nokusebenza okukhulu uzodlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, amabhizinisi anezinga elincane, izindleko eziphezulu kanye nokungabi nazo izinsizakusebenza azobhekana nomthelela omkhulu. Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelele, umthamo wokukhiqiza ohleliwe owakhiwayo ngo-2024 ungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-4.3, kanti ukukhishwa kwamandla okukhiqiza amasha kungenye ithonya esimweni samanje sokungalingani kokunikezwa kwekhaya kanye nesidingo semakethe kamanyolo ohlanganisiwe, umthamo wokukhiqiza oweqile kakhulu, kanye nokuncintisana kwamanani okunonya okunzima ukukugwema okwesikhashana, okwakha ingcindezi ethile emananini.

4. Izindleko zezinto ezingavuthiwe

I-Urea: Kusukela ohlangothini lokunikezwa ngo-2024, ukukhiqizwa kwe-urea kuzoqhubeka nokukhula, futhi kusukela ohlangothini lwesidingo, imboni kanye nezolimo kuzobonisa ukulindela ukukhula okuthile, kodwa ngokusekelwe enanini eliningi lempahla ekupheleni kuka-2023, ukunikezwa kwasekhaya kanye nesidingo ngo-2024 noma kubonise umkhuba wokunciphisa kancane kancane, kanye noshintsho kumthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle ngonyaka ozayo kuzoqhubeka nokuthinta umkhuba wemakethe. Imakethe ye-urea ngo-2024 iyaqhubeka nokushintshashintsha kakhulu, ngamathuba aphezulu okuthi isikhungo sentengo yamandla adonsela phansi sehle kusukela ngo-2023.

Umanyolo we-phosphate: Ngo-2024, intengo yasekhaya ye-mono ammonium phosphate iyehla. Nakuba ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunqunyelwe kwikota yokuqala, isidingo sasekhaya sasentwasahlobo kanye namanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa asasekelwa amanani aphezulu, intengo izoshintshashintsha kakhulu ku-2850-2950 yuan/ton; Esikhathini esingaphandle kwekota yesibili, umanyolo wasehlobo uqukethe i-nitrogen ephezulu kakhulu, isidingo se-phosphorus sinqunyelwe, futhi intengo ye-mono-ammonium phosphate izokwehla kancane kancane ngaphansi kwethonya lokwehla kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa; Kwikota yesithathu neyesine yesizini yokuthengisa yasekwindla yasekhaya, isidingo somanyolo we-phosphate ephezulu ye-phosphorus sikhulu, futhi isidingo samazwe ngamazwe siyakhuthazwa, kanye nokulandelwa kwesidingo sokugcina ebusika, kanye ne-phosphate yezinto zokusetshenziswa zokusetshenziswa ukuze kusekelwe amanani aqinile, intengo ye-mono-ammonium phosphate izobuya.

Umanyolo wePotassium: Ngo-2024, umkhuba wentengo yemakethe ye-potash yasekhaya uzoshintsha ngokuya ngesizini engekho phezulu yemakethe, eqhutshwa yisidingo esiqinile semakethe yasentwasahlobo, intengo yemakethe ye-potassium chloride ne-potassium sulfate izoqhubeka nokukhuphuka, kanti inkontileka ka-2023 iphela ngoDisemba 31, 2023, futhi isazobhekana nesimo sokuxoxisana senkontileka enkulu ka-2024. Kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi izingxoxo zizoqala kwikota yokuqala. Ngemuva kokuphela kwemakethe yasentwasahlobo, imakethe ye-potash yasekhaya izongena emkhubeni okhanyayo, yize kusekhona isidingo sezimakethe zasehlobo nasekwindla esigabeni sakamuva, kodwa kunqunyelwe i-potash.

Uma sibheka ukuthambekela kwezinto ezintathu eziyinhloko ezingenhla ngo-2024, kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi intengo yonyaka ka-2023 izokwehla, bese izindleko zomanyolo ohlanganisiwe zizoncipha, okuthinta ukuthambekela kwentengo yomanyolo ohlanganisiwe.

5. Isidingo esingezansi

Njengamanje, maqondana nokusanhlamvu okuyinhloko okusezansi, izoqhubeka idinga amandla ayo okukhiqiza aphelele ukuze ikhule kancane kancane ngo-2024, futhi umkhiqizo uzohlala ungaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyi-1.3 zama-catties, okuqinisekisa ukwaneliseka okuyisisekelo kokusanhlamvu kanye nokuphepha kokudla okuphelele. Ngokomongo wesu lokuphepha kokudla, isidingo sezolimo sizozinza futhi sithuthuke, sinikeze ukwesekwa okuhle ohlangothini lwesidingo somanyolo ohlanganisiwe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma kucatshangelwa intuthuko yezolimo eziluhlaza, umehluko wentengo phakathi komanyolo omusha kanye nomanyolo ojwayelekile kulindeleke ukuthi unciphe kakhulu, futhi isabelo somanyolo ojwayelekile sizoncishiswa, kodwa kuzothatha isikhathi ukushintsha. Ngakho-ke, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo kanye nokusetshenziswa komanyolo ohlanganisiwe ngeke kushintshe kakhulu ngo-2024.

6. Umbono wentengo yemakethe

Ngokusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni kwalezi zici ezingenhla, yize ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo kuthuthukile, ingcindezi eyengeziwe isekhona, futhi izindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa zingase zikhululeke, ngakho-ke imakethe yomanyolo ohlanganisiwe kulindeleke ukuthi ibuye ngokunengqondo ngo-2024, kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo, imakethe ehlukaniswe ngezigaba isekhona, futhi umthelela wezinqubomgomo udinga ukucatshangelwa. Kumabhizinisi, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ukulungiswa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa ngaphambi kwesizini, amandla okukhiqiza asheshayo esizini ephezulu, ukusebenza komkhiqizo, njll., abhekene novivinyo.