Ngabe imakethe kamanyolo ehlanganisiwe izoba ngcono ngo-2024? Ingabe imakethe izoshintshashintsha? Okulandelayo ukuhlaziya okujulile kwenkambiso yesikhathi esizayo kamanyolo oyinhlanganisela ngokombono wemvelo enkulu, inqubomgomo, iphethini yokuhlinzeka nesidingo, izindleko nenzuzo, kanye nokuhlaziywa kwesimo sokuncintisana kwezimboni.

1. Ukusimama komnotho womhlaba kuhamba kancane, futhi umnotho waseShayina ubhekene namathuba nezinselele

Ngaphansi kwethonya lezingcuphe eziningi ezifana ne-unilateralism, i-geopolitics, izingxabano zamasosha, ukwehla kwamandla emali, izikweletu zamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kochungechunge lwezimboni, ukukhula kohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwehle kakhulu, futhi ukusimama komnotho womhlaba ngo-2024 kuhamba kancane futhi akulingani, nokungaqiniseki. ziyanda.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umnotho waseShayina uzobhekana namathuba nezinselele eziningi. Ithuba elikhulu kunawo wonke lisekuthuthukisweni okuqhubekayo “kwengqalasizinda entsha” kanye namasu “omjikelezo ophindwe kabili”. Lezi zinqubomgomo ezimbili zizogqugquzela ngamandla ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni zakuleli futhi zithuthukise amandla angaphakathi okuqhuba umnotho. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, inkambiso yomhlaba wonke yokuvikela uhwebo isaqhubeka, okungalethi ingcindezi encane ekuthengisweni kwezwe laseChina.

Ngokombono wesibikezelo semvelo esikhulu, amathuba okuthi umnotho womhlaba ube ntekenteke ngonyaka ozayo makhulu, futhi impahla ingase inyakaziswe kancane, kodwa kusadingeka ukuthi kubhekwe ukungaqiniseki okulethwa ukungqubuzana kwendawo yezepolitiki emakethe. Isimo sasekhaya esingcono kulindeleke ukuthi senze lula ukubuyiselwa kwamanani kamanyolo wasekhaya ekuguquguqukeni okunengqondo kwendawo.

2, izinsiza zikamanyolo zinezimfanelo eziqinile, nezinqubomgomo ziqondisa ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni

Umnyango Wezolimo Nezindaba Zasemakhaya ukhiphe isaziso esithi “Uhlelo Lokusebenza Lokunciphisa Umanyolo wamakhemikhali ngo-2025”, oludinga ukuthi ngo-2025, ukusetshenziswa kukazwelonke komanyolo wamakhemikhali wezolimo kufanele kufinyelele ukwehla okuzinzile nokuzinzile. Ukusebenza okuqondile ukuthi: ngo-2025, ingxenye yendawo yokufakwa kukamanyolo we-organic izokwenyuka ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwama-5, izinga lokumbozwa kokuhlolwa kwenhlabathi kanye nobuchwepheshe bokuvundiswa kwefomula ezitshalweni ezinkulu ezweni lizobe lizinzile ngaphezu kwama-90%, futhi izinga lokusebenzisa umanyolo wezitshalo ezintathu zokudla ezinkulu ezweni lizofinyelela ku-43%. Ngaso leso sikhathi, ngokohlelo lokuthuthukiswa kwe-"Fourteenth-Year Plan" lwe-phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, imboni kamanyolo ehlanganisiwe iyaqhubeka nokuthatha ukuthuthukiswa kohlaza, ukuguqulwa nokuthuthukiswa, ikhwalithi nokusebenza kahle njengomgomo jikelele, kanye nenhlanganisela. izinga lizothuthukiswa futhi.

Ngaphansi kwesizinda "sokulawulwa okuphindwe kabili kwamandla", "izinga lekhabhoni emibili", ukuphepha kokudla, kanye "nokunikezwa okuzinzile kanye nentengo kamanyolo", ngokombono wenkambiso yokuthuthukiswa kwemboni, ikusasa likamanyolo oyinhlanganisela lidinga ukuqhubeka nokwenza ngcono inqubo. kanye nokwenza ngcono inqubo yokukhiqiza ukonga amandla kanye nokunciphisa intuthu ekhishwayo; Mayelana nezinhlobonhlobo, kuyadingeka ukukhiqiza umanyolo wekhwalithi ephezulu ohlangabezana nezidingo zezolimo ezisezingeni eliphezulu; Enqubeni yokufaka isicelo, kufanele kuqashelwe ukwenza ngcono izinga lokusebenzisa umanyolo.

3. Kuzoba nobuhlungu enqubweni yokuhlinzeka kanye nokwenza kahle kwesidingo

Ngokombono wepulani kanye nokufakwa okusalungiswayo, ijubane lesakhiwo sesizinda sokukhiqiza sikazwelonke samabhizinisi amakhulu alikakamiswa, futhi isu lokuhlanganisa okuqondile linokubaluleka okukhulu okungokoqobo kokwenyuka kwenzuzo yamabhizinisi kamanyolo ayinhlanganisela. , ngenxa yokuthi inkambiso yokuhlanganiswa kwezimboni, ikakhulukazi amabhizinisi anezinzuzo zezinsiza nokusebenza ngezinga elikhulu azodlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, amabhizinisi anezinga elincane, izindleko eziphezulu futhi ezingenazo izinsiza azobhekana nomthelela omkhulu. Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelele, umthamo wokukhiqiza ohleliwe owakhiwa ngo-2024 ungamathani ayizigidi ezi-4.3, futhi ukukhishwa kwamandla amasha okukhiqiza kungomunye umthelela esimweni samanje sokuhlinzekwa kwasekhaya kanye nokungalingani kwesidingo semakethe kamanyolo ehlanganisiwe, umthamo wokukhiqiza oweqile, kanye ukuncintisana kwentengo okunonya kunzima ukukugwema okwesikhashana, okwenza ingcindezi ethile kumanani.

4. Izindleko zempahla eluhlaza

I-Urea: Kusukela ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka ngo-2024, ukukhiqizwa kwe-urea kuzoqhubeka nokukhula, futhi kusukela ohlangothini lwesidingo, imboni nezolimo kuzobonisa ukulindela okuthile kokukhula, kodwa ngokusekelwe emalini enqwabelene ekupheleni kuka-2023, ukuhlinzekwa kwasekhaya kanye nesidingo ngo-2024. noma ubonise inkambiso yokunciphisa ngezigaba, futhi ukuguqulwa kwevolumu yokuthekelisa ngonyaka ozayo kuzoqhubeka nokuba nomthelela emakethe. Imakethe ye-urea ngo-2024 iyaqhubeka nokuguquguquka kabanzi, kunethuba elikhulu lokuthi isikhungo samanani adonsela phansi sehle kusukela ngo-2023.

Umanyolo we-Phosphate: Ngo-2024, intengo yasekhaya ye-mono ammonium phosphate inomkhuba owehlayo. Nakuba ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kukhawulelwe kwikota yokuqala, isidingo sentwasahlobo sasekhaya nezintengo zempahla eluhlaza zisasekelwa amanani aphezulu, intengo izoguquguquka ikakhulukazi ku-2850-2950 yuan/ton; Esikhathini esingekho sekota yesibili, umanyolo wehlobo ikakhulukazi une-nitrogen ephezulu, isidingo se-phosphorus sinqunyelwe, futhi intengo ye-mono-ammonium phosphate izokwehla kancane kancane ngaphansi kwethonya lokwehla kwamanani entengo yezinto ezibonakalayo; Engxenyeni yesithathu neyesine yenkathi yokuthengisa yasekwindla yasekhaya, isidingo somanyolo we-phosphate ephezulu we-phosphorus sikhulu, futhi isidingo samazwe ngamazwe siyakhuthazwa, kanye nokulandelwa kwesidingo sokugcina ubusika, kanye ne-phosphate yempahla eluhlaza. ukusekelwa kwamanani aqinile, intengo ye-mono-ammonium phosphate izophinde ikhuphuke.

Umanyolo wePotassium: Ngo-2024, inkambiso yamanani emakethe ye-potash yasekhaya izoshintsha ngokuya ngesizini yemakethe, eqhutshwa yisidingo esiqinile semakethe yasentwasahlobo, intengo yemakethe ye-potassium chloride ne-potassium sulfate izoqhubeka nokukhuphuka. , futhi inkontileka ka-2023 iphela ngoDisemba 31, 2023, futhi isazobhekana nesimo sokuxoxisana senkontileka enkulu ka-2024. Makhulu amathuba okuthi izingxoxo ziqale ngekota yokuqala. Ngemuva kokuphela kwemakethe yasentwasahlobo, imakethe ye-potash yasekhaya izongena esimweni esilula, nakuba kusenesidingo sezimakethe zasehlobo nasekwindla esikhathini esizayo, kodwa kulinganiselwe ku-potash.

Uma kucatshangelwa ukuthambekela kwezinto ezintathu eziphambili ezingenhla ngo-2024, maningi amathuba okuthi intengo yonyaka ka-2023 yehle, bese kuthi izindleko zikamanyolo ohlanganisiwe zixege, kuthinte intengo kamanyolo ohlanganisiwe.

5. Ukufunwa komfula

Njengamanje, mayelana nokusanhlamvu okuyinhloko okuzansi nomfula, izoqhubeka nokudinga amandla ayo okukhiqiza aphelele ukuthi akhule kancane kancane ngo-2024, futhi umkhiqizo uzohlala ungaphezu kwamakati ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.3, ukuqinisekisa ukwanelisa okuyisisekelo okusanhlamvu nokuphepha kokudla okuphelele. Ngokwengqikithi yesu lokuvikeleka kokudla, isidingo sezolimo sizozinza futhi sithuthuke, sinikeze ukusekelwa okuhle ohlangothini lwesidingo sikamanyolo ohlanganisiwe. Ukwengeza, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthuthukiswa kwezolimo eziluhlaza, umehluko wamanani phakathi kwamanyolo amasha kanye nomanyolo ojwayelekile kulindeleke ukuthi uqhubeke nokuncipha, futhi isabelo somanyolo ojwayelekile sizocindezelwa, kodwa kuzothatha isikhathi ukuguquka. Ngakho-ke, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo nokusetshenziswa komanyolo ohlanganisiwe ngeke kuguquguquke kakhulu ngo-2024.

6. Ukubukeka kwentengo yemakethe

Ngokusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni kwalezi zici ezingenhla, nakuba ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo sekuthuthukile, ingcindezi eyeqile isekhona, futhi izindleko zezinto ezingavuthiwe zingase zixegiswe, ngakho-ke imakethe kamanyolo oyinhlanganisela kulindeleke ukuthi ibuye ngokunengqondo ngo-2024, kodwa ngasikhathi sinye. , imakethe yezigaba isekhona, futhi umthelela wezinqubomgomo udinga ukucatshangelwa. Emabhizinisini, noma ngabe ukulungiswa kwempahla eluhlaza ngaphambi kwesizini, amandla okukhiqiza asheshayo esizini ephezulu, ukusebenza komkhiqizo, njll., kubhekene novivinyo.