Inhlekelele! Isexwayiso esikhulu samakhemikhali! Ukwesaba ingozi "yokunciphisa ukunikezwa"!

Muva nje, iCovestro imemezele ukuthi isitshalo sayo se-TDI esingamathani angu-300,000 eJalimane sasinamandla amakhulu ngenxa yokuvuza kwe-chlorine futhi sasingeke siqalwe kabusha esikhathini esifushane. Kulindeleke ukuthi siqale kabusha ukunikezwa ngemva kukaNovemba 30.

I-BASF, nayo eseJalimane, nayo yabhekana nesitshalo se-TDI esingamathani angu-300,000 esavalwa ukuze silungiswe ekupheleni kuka-Ephreli futhi asikaqalwa kabusha okwamanje. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iyunithi ye-BC yaseWanhua nayo iyalungiswa njalo. Esikhathini esifushane, amandla okukhiqiza i-TDI yaseYurophu, acishe abe ngu-25% wenani lomhlaba, asesimweni esingenalutho, futhi ukungalingani kokuhlinzekwa kwesifunda kanye nesidingo kuyanda.

“Umzila wokuphila” womthamo wokuthutha wanqanyulwa, futhi izinkampani ezinkulu zamakhemikhali eziningana zanikeza isixwayiso esiphuthumayo

UMfula iRhine, ongabizwa ngokuthi “umzila wokuphila” womnotho waseYurophu, wehle amazinga amanzi ngenxa yokushisa okuphezulu, futhi ezinye izingxenye ezibalulekile zomfula kulindeleke ukuthi zingabi nakuhamba kuzo kusukela mhla ziyi-12 kuNcwaba. Izazi zezulu zibikezela ukuthi izimo zesomiso cishe zizoqhubeka ezinyangeni ezizayo, futhi isizinda sezimboni saseJalimane singase siphinde amaphutha afanayo, sibhekane nemiphumela emibi kakhulu kunokwehluleka kweRhine okwake kwenzeka ngo-2018, ngaleyo ndlela sibhebhethekise inkinga yamandla yamanje eYurophu.

Indawo yoMfula iRhine eJalimane ifinyelela cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yendawo yaseJalimane, futhi igeleza ezindaweni eziningana zezimboni ezibaluleke kakhulu zaseJalimane njengendawo yaseRuhr. Kufika ku-10% wokuthunyelwa kwamakhemikhali eYurophu kusetshenziswa iRhine, okuhlanganisa izinto zokusetshenziswa, umanyolo, imikhiqizo ephakathi kanye namakhemikhali aqediwe. IRhine yakha cishe u-28% wokuthunyelwa kwamakhemikhali aseJalimane ngo-2019 nango-2020, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwamakhemikhali ephethroli kwezinkampani ezinkulu zamakhemikhali ezifana ne-BASF, iCovestro, iLANXESS kanye ne-Evonik kuncike kakhulu ekuthunyelweni eduze kweRhine.

Njengamanje, igesi yemvelo namalahle eYurophu kushubile, futhi kule nyanga, ukuvinjelwa kwe-EU ngamalahle aseRussia kwaqala ukusebenza ngokusemthethweni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunezindaba zokuthi i-EU izophinde iqede iGazprom. Lezi zindaba ezishaqisayo eziqhubekayo zizwakale embonini yamakhemikhali yomhlaba wonke. Njengesikhumbuzo, izinkampani eziningi ezinkulu zamakhemikhali ezifana ne-BASF kanye ne-Covestro zikhiphe izixwayiso kusenesikhathi maduze.

Isikhulu sikamanyolo saseNyakatho Melika iMosaic siveze ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwezitshalo emhlabeni wonke kuncane ngenxa yezici ezimbi ezifana nengxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, amazinga okushisa aqhubekayo eYurophu nase-United States, kanye nezimpawu zesomiso eningizimu yeBrazil. Ngokuphathelene nama-phosphate, iLegg Mason ilindele ukuthi imikhawulo yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kwamanye amazwe cishe izonwetshwa phakathi nonyaka wonke kuze kube ngu-2023.

Inkampani yamakhemikhali akhethekile iLanxess ithe ukuvinjelwa kwegesi kuzoba "nemiphumela emibi kakhulu" embonini yamakhemikhali yaseJalimane, lapho izitshalo ezisebenzisa kakhulu igesi zivala ukukhiqizwa kanti ezinye kuzodingeka zinciphise umkhiqizo.

Umsabalalisi wamakhemikhali omkhulu kunabo bonke emhlabeni, iBruntage, uthe ukwenyuka kwamanani kagesi kuzobeka imboni yamakhemikhali yaseYurophu esimweni esingesihle. Ngaphandle kokufinyelela amandla ashibhile, ukuncintisana kwemboni yamakhemikhali yaseYurophu okuzoqhubeka isikhathi eside phakathi nesikhathi eside kuzoncipha.

U-Azelis, umsabalalisi wamakhemikhali akhethekile waseBelgium, uthe kunezinselelo eziqhubekayo kwezokuthutha emhlabeni jikelele, ikakhulukazi ukuthutha kwezimpahla kusuka eShayina kuya eYurophu noma eMelika. Ugu lwase-US luhlaselwe ukushoda kwabasebenzi, ukwehla kokususwa kwempahla kanye nokushoda kwabashayeli bamaloli e-US naseYurophu okuthinta ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla.

UCovestro uxwayise ngokuthi ukwabiwa kwegesi yemvelo ngonyaka ozayo kungaphoqa izikhungo zokukhiqiza ngazinye ukuthi zisebenze ngemithwalo ephansi noma zivalwe ngokuphelele, kuye ngokuthi ukuncishiswa kokunikezwa kwegesi kungakanani, okungaholela ekuweni okuphelele kochungechunge lokukhiqiza kanye nokunikezwa futhi kubeke engcupheni izinkulungwane zemisebenzi.

I-BASF ikhiphe izixwayiso ngokuphindaphindiwe ukuthi uma ukutholakala kwegesi yemvelo kwehla ngaphansi kwama-50% esidingo esiphezulu, kuzodingeka inciphise noma ivale ngokuphelele isisekelo esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni sokukhiqizwa kwamakhemikhali ahlanganisiwe, isisekelo saseJalimane iLudwigshafen.

Isikhulu se-petrochemical saseSwitzerland i-INEOS sithe izindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa zemisebenzi yaso yaseYurophu ziphezulu kakhulu, futhi ingxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine kanye nezinhlawulo zomnotho ezibangelwe yiRussia zilethe “izinselele ezinkulu” emananini amandla kanye nokuphepha kwamandla embonini yamakhemikhali yaseYurophu yonke.

Inkinga "yokunamathela entanyeni" iyaqhubeka, futhi ukuguqulwa kwezimbozo kanye nezintambo zemboni yamakhemikhali kuseduze

Izinkampani ezinkulu zamakhemikhali eziqhele ngamakhilomitha amaningi ziye zaxwayisa kaningi, zibangela iziphepho ezinegazi. Ezinkampanini zamakhemikhali zasekhaya, into ebaluleke kakhulu umthelela ochungechungeni lwazo lwezimboni. Izwe lami linokuncintisana okunamandla ochungechungeni lwezimboni olusezingeni eliphansi, kodwa lisabuthakathaka emikhiqizweni ephezulu. Lesi simo sikhona nasembonini yamakhemikhali yamanje. Njengamanje, phakathi kwezinto zamakhemikhali ezibalulekile ezingaphezu kuka-130 eShayina, izinhlobo ezingu-32% azinalutho, kanti izinhlobo ezingu-52% zisathembele ekungenisweni kwamanye amazwe.

Engxenyeni ephezulu yezembozo, kukhona nezinto eziningi zokusetshenziswa ezikhethiwe emikhiqizweni yaphesheya kwezilwandle. I-DSM embonini ye-epoxy resin, i-Mitsubishi ne-Mitsui embonini ye-solvent; i-Digao ne-BASF embonini ye-defoamer; i-Sika ne-Valspar embonini ye-curing agent; i-Digao ne-Dow embonini ye-wetting agent; i-WACKER ne-Degussa embonini ye-titanium dioxide; i-Chemours ne-Huntsman embonini ye-titanium dioxide; i-Bayer ne-Lanxess embonini ye-pigment.

Ukwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela, ukushoda kwegesi yemvelo, ukuvinjelwa kwamalahle eRussia, ukuhlinzekwa kwamanzi nogesi okuphuthumayo, kanye nokuthutha nakho kuvinjelwe, okuthinta ngqo ukuhlinzekwa kwamakhemikhali amaningi aphezulu. Uma imikhiqizo engeniswayo ephezulu ivinjelwe, noma ngabe akuzona zonke izinkampani zamakhemikhali ezizodonswa phansi, zizothinteka ngamazinga ahlukahlukene ngaphansi kokusabela kweketanga.

Nakuba kukhona abakhiqizi basekhaya bohlobo olufanayo, izithiyo eziningi zobuchwepheshe eziphezulu azikwazi ukugqashulwa esikhathini esifushane. Uma izinkampani embonini zisengakwazi ukulungisa ukuqonda kwazo kanye nesiqondiso sentuthuko, futhi zinganaki ucwaningo lwesayensi nobuchwepheshe kanye nentuthuko kanye nokusungula izinto ezintsha, lolu hlobo lwenkinga "yokunamathela entanyeni" luzoqhubeka nokudlala indima, bese luzothinteka kuwo wonke amandla angaphandle. Lapho isikhulu samakhemikhali esiqhele ngamakhilomitha ayizinkulungwane siba nengozi, akunakugwenywa ukuthi inhliziyo izoklwebheka futhi ukukhathazeka kuzoba okungajwayelekile.

Amanani kawoyela abuyela ezingeni lezinyanga eziyisithupha ezedlule, ingabe lihle noma libi?

Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalonyaka, ukuthambekela kwentengo kawoyela emhlabeni wonke kungachazwa njengokujikajika. Ngemva kwamagagasi amabili adlule okwenyuka nokwehla, amanani kawoyela emhlabeni wonke anamuhla abuyele ekushintsheni cishe ku-$90 ngomgqomo ngaphambi kukaMashi kulo nyaka.

Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukulindela ukululama komnotho okubuthakathaka ezimakethe zaphesheya, kanye nokukhula okulindelekile kokutholakala kukawoyela ongahluziwe, kuzovimbela ukukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela ngezinga elithile; ngakolunye uhlangothi, isimo samanje sokukhuphuka kwamanani aphezulu sesakhe ukwesekwa okuhle kwamanani kawoyela. Esimweni esiyinkimbinkimbi kangaka, amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe amanje asenkingeni.

Izikhungo zokuhlaziya imakethe zikhombe ukuthi isimo samanje sokuntuleka kukawoyela ongahluziwe sisaqhubeka, futhi ukwesekwa okuphansi kwamanani kawoyela kuzinzile. Kodwa-ke, ngentuthuko entsha ezingxoxweni zenuzi zase-Iran, imakethe nayo inethemba lokususwa kokuvinjelwa kwemikhiqizo kawoyela ongahluziwe wase-Iran emakethe, okuholela ekucindezelweni kwamanani kawoyela. I-Iran ingenye yabakhiqizi bakawoyela abambalwa abakhulu emakethe yamanje abangakhuphula kakhulu umkhiqizo. Intuthuko yengxoxo yesivumelwano senuzi sase-Iran ibe yinto eguquguqukayo enkulu emakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe muva nje.

Izimakethe zigxile ezingxoxweni zesivumelwano senuzi sase-Iran

Muva nje, ukukhathazeka mayelana nethuba lokukhula komnotho kubeke ingcindezi emananini kawoyela, kodwa ukungezwani kwesakhiwo ohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kukawoyela kube yisona sisekelo esiphansi samanani kawoyela, futhi amanani kawoyela abhekene nengcindezi kuzo zombili izinhlangothi zokwenyuka nokwehla. Kodwa-ke, izingxoxo ngendaba yenuzi yase-Iran zizoletha izinguquko ezingaba khona emakethe, ngakho-ke futhi kube yinto ebalulekile kubo bonke abathintekayo.

Inhlangano yolwazi lwezimpahla iLongzhong Information iveze ukuthi izingxoxo ngendaba yenuzi yase-Iran ziyisenzakalo esibalulekile emakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe maduze nje.

Nakuba i-EU ishilo ukuthi izoqhubeka nokuthuthukisa izingxoxo zenuzi zase-Iran emasontweni ambalwa ezayo, kanti i-Iran ishilo nokuthi izophendula "embhalweni" ophakanyiswe yi-EU ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezizayo, i-United States ayikasho lutho olucacile ngalokhu, ngakho-ke kusenokungabaza ngomphumela wokugcina wezingxoxo. Ngakho-ke, kunzima ukususa umkhawulo kawoyela wase-Iran ngobusuku obubodwa.

Ukuhlaziywa kwe-Huatai Futures kuveze ukuthi kusenomehluko phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran ngemibandela ebalulekile yokuxoxisana, kodwa kungenzeka ukuthi kufinyelelwe uhlobo oluthile lwesivumelwano sesikhashana ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka. Ingxoxo yenuzi yase-Iran ingenye yamakhadi ambalwa amandla i-United States engawadlala. Uma nje ingxoxo yenuzi yase-Iran ingenzeka, umthelela wayo emakethe uzohlala ukhona.

I-Huatai Futures iveze ukuthi i-Iran ingenye yamazwe ambalwa emakethe yamanje angakhuphula kakhulu umkhiqizo, futhi isikhundla sokuntanta kwamafutha ase-Iran olwandle nasemhlabeni singaba yimiphongolo ecishe ibe yizigidi ezingama-50. Uma izijeziso sezisusiwe, kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu emakethe yamafutha yesikhashana.