Inkinga! Isexwayiso esikhulu samakhemikhali! Ukwesaba ingozi "yokunciphisa ukunikezwa"!

Muva nje, i-Covestro imemezele ukuthi isitshalo sayo se-TDI esingamathani angu-300,000 eJalimane sasiyi-force majeure ngenxa yokuvuza kwe-chlorine futhi asikwazanga ukuqaliswa kabusha esikhathini esifushane. Kulindeleke ukuthi kuqale kabusha ukuhlinzekwa ngemuva kukaNovemba 30.

I-BASF, nayo eseJalimane, iphinde yachayeka embonini ye-TDI engamathani angu-300,000 eyavalwa ukuthi ilungiswe ekupheleni kuka-April futhi ayikaqalwa kabusha kuze kube manje. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iyunithi ye-Wanhua BC nayo isesimweni sokulungiswa okujwayelekile. Esikhathini esifushane, umthamo wokukhiqiza we-TDI yase-Europe, ohlanganisa cishe u-25% wengqikithi yomhlaba, usesimweni esingenamuntu, futhi ukungalingani kokuphakelwa kwesifunda kanye nesidingo kuyakhula.

“Umzila wokuphila” womthamo wezokuthutha wanqanyulwa, futhi imidondoshiya yamakhemikhali eminingana yanikeza isixwayiso esiphuthumayo

Umfula i-Rhine, ongabizwa ngokuthi “umzila wokuphila” womnotho waseYurophu, wehlile amanzi ngenxa yamazinga okushisa aphezulu, kanti ezinye izingxenye zomfula eziyinhloko kulindeleke ukuba zingakwazi ukuphepheka kusukela ngo-August 12. Izazi zezulu zibikezela ukuthi izimo zesomiso cishe zizoqhubeka ezinyangeni ezizayo, kanye nenhliziyo yezimboni yaseJalimane ingase iphinde amaphutha afanayo, ibhekane nemiphumela emibi kakhulu kunokwehluleka okungokomlando kwe-Rhine ngo-2018, ngaleyo ndlela kubhebhethekise inkinga yamanje yamandla aseYurophu.

Indawo yoMfula i-Rhine eJalimane ifinyelela cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yendawo yaseJalimane, futhi igeleza ezindaweni ezimbalwa zezimboni ezibalulekile zaseJalimane njengendawo yaseRuhr. Cishe i-10% yokuthunyelwa kwamakhemikhali eYurophu isebenzisa i-Rhine, okuhlanganisa izinto ezingavuthiwe, umanyolo, imikhiqizo ephakathi namakhemikhali aphelile. I-Rhine yabalelwa cishe u-28% wokuthunyelwa kwamakhemikhali aseJalimane ngo-2019 nango-2020, kanti izinto ze-petrochemical logistics zamakhemikhali amakhulu anjenge-BASF, i-Covestro, i-LANXESS ne-Evonik zincike kakhulu ekuthunyelweni ngase-Rhine.

Njengamanje, igesi yemvelo namalahle eYurophu kushubile uma kuqhathaniswa, futhi kule nyanga, ukuvimbela kwe-EU kumalahle aseRussia kwaqala ukusebenza ngokusemthethweni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunezindaba zokuthi i-EU izophinde ihlasele iGazprom. Izindaba ezishaqisayo eziqhubekayo zizwakale embonini yamakhemikhali yomhlaba wonke. Njengocingo lokuvuka, ama-giants amaningi amakhemikhali afana ne-BASF ne-Covestro akhiphe izixwayiso zakuqala esikhathini esizayo esiseduze.

Isikhondlakhondla sikamanyolo saseNyakatho Melika uMosaic saveza ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwezitshalo emhlabeni wonke kuqinile ngenxa yezinto ezingezinhle njengokungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, ukuqhubeka kwamazinga okushisa aphakeme eYurophu nase-United States, kanye nezimpawu zesomiso eningizimu yeBrazil. Ngama-phosphates, u-Legg Mason ulindele ukuthi imikhawulo yokuthumela ngaphandle kwamanye amazwe ingase inwetshwe unyaka wonke kuze kube ngu-2023.

Inkampani yamakhemikhali akhethekile i-Lanxess ithe ukuvinjelwa kwegesi kuzoba "nemiphumela eyinhlekelele" embonini yamakhemikhali yaseJalimane, lapho izitshalo ezisebenzisa kakhulu igesi zivala ukukhiqizwa kuyilapho ezinye zizodinga ukunciphisa okukhiphayo.

Umsabalalisi wamakhemikhali omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni, iBruntage, uthe ukukhuphuka kwentengo yamandla kuzobeka imboni yamakhemikhali yase-Europe kusimo esingesihle. Ngaphandle kokufinyelela kumandla ashibhile, ukuncintisana kwesikhathi eside kwemboni yamakhemikhali yaseYurophu kuzophazamiseka.

U-Azelis, ongumsabalalisi wamakhemikhali akhethekile waseBelgium, uthe kunezinselelo eziqhubekayo ekuziphatheni komhlaba, ikakhulukazi ukuhanjiswa kwezimpahla zisuka eChina ziye eYurophu noma emazweni aseMelika. Ugu lwaseMelika lukhungethwe ukushoda kwezisebenzi, ukuncipha kokuvunyelwa kwempahla kanye nokushoda kwabashayeli bamaloli e-US naseYurophu okuthinta ukuthunyelwa.

U-Covestro uxwayise ngokuthi isilinganiso segesi yemvelo ngonyaka ozayo singaphoqa izikhungo zokukhiqiza ngazinye ukuthi zisebenze ngemithwalo ephansi noma zivalwe ngokuphelele, kuye ngezinga lokuncishiswa kwegesi, okungaholela ekubhidlikeni kokukhiqizwa kanye namaketanga okuhlinzeka futhi kubeke engcupheni. izinkulungwane zemisebenzi.

I-BASF ikhiphe izixwayiso ngokuphindaphindiwe ukuthi uma ukunikezwa kwegesi yemvelo kwehla ngaphansi kwe-50% yesidingo esiphezulu, kuzofanele kunciphise noma ngisho nokuvala ngokuphelele isizinda sokukhiqiza amakhemikhali esihlanganisiwe esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni, isisekelo saseJalimane saseLudwigshafen.

Isikhulu se-petrochemical yaseSwitzerland i-INEOS sithe izindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa zaseYurophu ziphezulu ngokuhlekisa, futhi ukungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine kanye nezigwegwe zezomnotho eziholele eRussia kulethe "izinselelo ezinkulu" kumanani wamandla kanye nokuphepha kwamandla kulo lonke elaseYurophu. imboni yamakhemikhali.

Inkinga "yentamo eboshwe" iyaqhubeka, futhi ukuguqulwa kwezingubo zokugqoka kanye namaketanga embonini yamakhemikhali kuseduze

Iziqhwaga zamakhemikhali eziqhele ngezinkulungwane zamakhilomitha zivame ukuxwayisa, zisusa iziphepho ezichitha igazi. Ezinkampanini zamakhemikhali zasekhaya, into ebaluleke kakhulu umthelela ochungechungeni lwazo lwezimboni. izwe lami linokuncintisana okuqinile ochungechungeni lwezimboni ezisezingeni eliphansi, kodwa lisantekenteke emikhiqizweni esezingeni eliphezulu. Lesi simo sikhona nasembonini yamakhemikhali yamanje. Njengamanje, phakathi kwezisetshenziswa zamakhemikhali ezibalulekile ezingaphezu kwe-130 e-China, ama-32% ezinhlobonhlobo azinalutho, kanti ama-52% ezinhlobonhlobo asathembele ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe.

Engxenyeni ekhuphuka nomfula yezingubo zokugqoka, kukhona nezinto eziningi zokusetshenziswa ezikhethiwe emikhiqizweni yaphesheya. I-DSM embonini ye-epoxy resin, i-Mitsubishi ne-Mitsui embonini ye-solvent; I-Digao kanye ne-BASF embonini ye-defoamer; USika noValspar embonini ye-ejenti yokwelapha; I-Digao ne-Dow embonini ye-ejenti yokumanzisa; WACKER kanye neDegussa embonini ye-titanium dioxide; Chemours kanye Huntsman embonini titanium dioxide; I-Bayer kanye ne-Lanxess embonini ye-pigment.

Amanani akhuphukayo kawoyela, ukushoda kwegesi yemvelo, ukuvinjelwa kwamalahle eRussia, amanzi aphuthumayo nogesi, futhi manje ezokuthutha nazo zivinjelwe, okuthinta ngokuqondile ukuhlinzekwa kwamakhemikhali amaningi aphezulu. Uma imikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu engenisiwe ikhawulelwa, ngisho noma kungezona zonke izinkampani zamakhemikhali ezizohudulelwa phansi, zizothinteka ngamazinga ahlukahlukene ngaphansi kokusabela kweketango.

Nakuba kukhona abakhiqizi basekhaya bohlobo olufanayo, izithiyo eziningi zobuchwepheshe ezisezingeni eliphezulu azikwazi ukugqashuka ngesikhathi esifushane. Uma izinkampani embonini zisengakwazi ukulungisa ukuqonda kwazo kanye nesiqondiso sentuthuko, futhi zinganaki ucwaningo lwesayensi nobuchwepheshe kanye nentuthuko kanye nokusha, lolu hlobo lwenkinga "yentamo eboshwe" izoqhubeka nokubamba iqhaza, futhi khona-ke izothinteka kuwo wonke ama-overseas force majeure. Lapho umdondoshiya wamakhemikhali oqhele ngezinkulungwane zamakhilomitha uba sengozini, akunakugwenywa ukuthi inhliziyo izoklwebheka futhi ukukhathazeka kube okungavamile.

Amanani kawoyela abuyela ezingeni lezinyanga eziyisithupha ezedlule, ngabe kuhle noma kubi?

Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, ukuthambekela kwentengo kawoyela emhlabeni wonke kungachazwa njengokuguquguquka nokushintshashintsha. Ngemuva kwamagagasi amabili adlule okwehla nokwenyuka, amanani kawoyela anamuhla abuyele ekuguquguqukeni cishe ku-$90/umphongolo ngaphambi kukaMashi walo nyaka.

Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukulindela ukusimama komnotho okuntekenteke ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle, okuhambisana nokukhula okulindelekile kokunikezwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe, kuzonqanda ukukhuphuka kwentengo kawoyela ngezinga elithile; ngakolunye uhlangothi, isimo samanje sokwehla kwamandla emali aphezulu sesenze ukusekela okuhle kwamanani kawoyela. Esimweni esiyinkimbinkimbi kangaka, amanani amanje kawoyela emhlabeni wonke asenkingeni.

Izikhungo zokuhlaziya izimakethe ziveze ukuthi isimo samanje sokushoda kukawoyela ongahluziwe sisaqhubeka, futhi ukwesekwa okuphansi kwentengo kawoyela kuzinzile. Kodwa-ke, ngenqubekelaphambili entsha ezingxoxweni zenuzi zase-Iran, imakethe nayo ilindele ukuthi kuqedwe ukuvinjelwa kwemikhiqizo kawoyela ongahluziwe wase-Irani emakethe, okuphinde kuholele ekucindezelweni kwentengo kawoyela. I-Iran ingomunye wabakhiqizi bakawoyela abambalwa abakhulu emakethe yamanje abangakhuphula kakhulu umkhiqizo. Inqubekelaphambili yezingxoxo zesivumelwano senuzi yase-Iran isiphenduke into enkulu emakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe muva nje.

Izimakethe zigxile ezingxoxweni zesivumelwano senuzi e-Iran

Muva nje, ukukhathazeka mayelana nethuba lokukhula komnotho kufake ingcindezi emananini kawoyela, kodwa ukushuba kwesimo ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kukawoyela sekuphenduke ukweseka okuphansi kwentengo kawoyela, kanti amanani kawoyela abhekene nengcindezi kuzo zombili iziphetho zokukhuphuka nokwehla. Kodwa-ke, izingxoxo ngodaba lwenuzi lwase-Iran zizoletha okuguquguqukayo okungaba khona emakethe, ngakho-ke futhi sekugxilwe kuzo zonke izinhlangothi.

I-ejensi yolwazi lwezimpahla i-Longzhong Information iveze ukuthi izingxoxo ngodaba lwenuzi yase-Iran ziwumcimbi obalulekile emakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe esikhathini esizayo esiseduze.

Nakuba i-EU isishilo ukuthi izoqhubeka nokuqhubekisela phambili izingxoxo zenuzi e-Iran emasontweni ambalwa ezayo, futhi i-Iran iphinde yathi izophendula "embhalweni" ohlongozwa yi-EU ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezizayo, i-United States ayizange. wenze isitatimende esicacile ngalokhu, ngakho-ke kusenokungaqiniseki ngomphumela wokugcina wezingxoxo. Ngakho-ke, kunzima ukuphakamisa i-embargo kawoyela yase-Irani ngobusuku bonke.

Ukuhlaziywa kwe-Huatai Futures kubonise ukuthi kusenezingxabano phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran ngemibandela ebalulekile yokuxoxisana, kodwa kungenzeka ukuthi kufinyelelwe uhlobo oluthile lwesivumelwano sesikhashana ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka akunqatshiwe. Izingxoxo zenyukliya zase-Iran zingelinye lamakhadi ambalwa amandla angadlalwa yi-United States. Inqobo nje uma izingxoxo zenuzi zase-Iran zingenzeka, umthelela wayo emakethe uyohlale ukhona.

I-Huatai Futures iveze ukuthi i-Iran ingelinye lamazwe ambalwa emakethe yamanje engakhuphula kakhulu umkhiqizo, futhi isikhundla esintantayo samafutha ase-Iranian olwandle nasemhlabeni cishe imiphongolo eyizigidi ezingama-50. Uma unswinyo selususiwe, kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu emakethe kawoyela yesikhashana.