E-Europe, imakethe isezingeni eliphansi kuleli sonto njengoba inkambu ye-Troll eNorway yehlisa ukukhiqizwa okungaphezu kwesilinganiso sezinhlelo zokunakekela zangaphambilini, uhlu lwemikhiqizo yegesi yemvelo lukhuphuke lwaba phezulu kodwa lwehla, kodwa izintengo zekusasa le-TTF zehla njengoba amasheya esifundeni enyuka. manje isichichima kakhulu.

E-United States, ngo-July 28, ngesikhathi sendawo, ipayipi legesi yemvelo elaphuka eduze kwaseStrasburg, eVirginia, labuyela esimweni esivamile, futhi ukulethwa kwegesi yemvelo esikhumulweni segesi yemvelo encibilikisiwe e-Cove Point kwabuyela esimweni esivamile, nePort. Ikusasa likaHenry igesi yemvelo (NG) liwe ngemuva kokukhuphuka.

a) Uhlolojikelele lwemakethe

Kusukela ngomhla ka-1 Agasti, intengo yekusasa legesi yemvelo yase-United States i-Henry Port (NG) yayingu-2.56 US dollars/million British thermal, uma kuqhathaniswa nomjikelezo wangaphambilini (07.25) wehle ngo-0.035 US dollar/million British thermal, phansi ngo-1.35%; Intengo yesikhathi esizayo yegesi yemvelo yase-Dutch (TTF) yayingu-$8.744 / million BTU, yehle ngo-$0.423 / million Btu kusukela kumjikelezo odlule (07.25), noma u-4.61%.

E-United States, amanani entengo ekusasa e-United States Henry Port (NG) akhuphuka abese ehla phakathi nesonto, izinga lokushisa lasekhaya lase-United States lihlala liphezulu, isidingo sokusebenzisa igesi yemvelo sikhulu, kodwa ngoJulayi 28 isikhathi sendawo, ipayipi legesi yemvelo. eyabhidlika eduze kwaseStrasburg, eVirginia, yaphinde yaqala ukugeleza okuvamile, futhi ukulethwa kwegesi yemvelo esikhungweni segesi yemvelo eyenziwe uketshezi e-Cove Point kwaqala kabusha njengokujwayelekile. Ikusasa legesi yemvelo yase-US Port Henry (NG) lihlehlile ngemuva kokukhuphuka.

Mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, isidingo semakethe yase-Eurasian sizinzile kuleli sonto, ukuthunyelwa kwe-LNG yase-United States kuthinteka yizici zenqubomgomo yethrafikhi yasePanama Canal, isivinini sokuhamba eNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia sinqunyelwe, ukuthunyelwa kwegesi yemvelo yase-United States kuyaphoqelelwa. ukunciphisa, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwe-United States kwamanye amazwe kuyehla.

Ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, i-US Henry Port futures (NG) iyindlela eyehlayo, intengo yase-US Henry Port futures (NG) iya ku-2.57 US dollars/million BTU, i-KDJ iqhubekile nokwehla ngemuva kwemfoloko yokufa, umfutho ophansi enkulu, i-MACD isabonisa ukuthambekela kokwehla ngemuva kwemfoloko yokufa, kamuva izoqhubeka nokwehla, intengo yase-US Henry Port futures (NG) kuleli sonto ibonise ukwehla.

E-Europe, i-European Market Inventory inqabile, ngokusho kwedatha ye-European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association ibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngoJulayi 31, inani eliphelele laseYurophu liyi-964Twh, isabelo samandla okugcina se-85.43%, 0.36% ngaphansi kosuku lwangaphambilini.

Izimakethe zaseYurophu zisezingeni eliphansi kuleli sonto njengoba inkambu ye-Troll e-Norway yehlisa ukukhiqizwa okungaphezu kobubanzi bezinhlelo zokunakekela zangaphambilini, uhlu lwemikhiqizo yegesi yemvelo yenyuka yaya phezulu kodwa yancipha, kodwa amanani esikhathi esizayo e-TTF ehle njengoba amasheya esifundeni manje aseyinsada kakhulu.

Kusukela ngo-Agasti 1, i-US Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) kulindeleke ukuthi ibone izintengo zika-$2.6 / mmBTU, zehle ngo-$0.06 / mmBTU, noma ngo-2.26%, kusukela kwikota edlule (07.25). Intengo yendawo ye-Canadian Natural Gas (AECO) yayingu-$2.018 / mmBTU, ikhuphuke ngo-$0.077 / mmBTU, noma ngo-3.99%, kusukela enyangeni edlule (07.25).

I-Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) ilindele izintengo ezikhona ukuthi zehle futhi ukunikezwa kwegesi ye-Cove Point feedstock ukuthi kuqalise kabusha, kodwa i-Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) ilindele izintengo ezikhona ukuthi zehle ngenxa yokuncipha kokuthunyelwa kwe-US LNG ngenxa yemikhawulo yokugeleza kwePanama Canal.

Kusukela ngo-Agasti 1, intengo ye-Northeast Asia indawo yokufika i-China (DES) yayiyi-10.733 US dollars/million BTU, yehle ngo-0.456 US dollar/million BTU kusukela kwikota yangaphambilini (07.25), yehle ngo-4.08%; Intengo yendawo ye-TTF yayingu-$8.414 / mmBTU, yehle ngo-$0.622 / mmBTU kusukela kukota edlule (07.25), yehle ngo-6.88%.

Intengo yendawo esetshenziswayo evamile inomkhuba owehlayo, isidingo e-Europe nase-Asia sihlale sizinzile sisonke, uhlu lwezimpahla ezimakethe zendawo luhlale lwanele, futhi imakethe igcine ukugcwala ngokweqile, okuholele ekwehleni amanani entengo ezweni lonke.

b) Inventory

Kusukela ngesonto eliphele ngoJulayi 21, ngokombiko we-US Energy Agency, indawo yegesi yemvelo yase-United States yayingama-cubic feet ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2,987, ukwanda ngama-cubic feet ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-16, noma ngo-0.54%; Uhlu lwempahla lwalungama-cubic feet angu-5,730, noma u-23.74%, ngaphezu konyaka odlule. Lokho kungu-345 billion cubic feet, noma u-13.06%, ngaphezu kwesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu.

Ngesonto eliphele ngo-Julayi 21, ngokusho kwedatha ye-European Gas Infrastructure Association, i-European gas yemvelo yokusungula yayingama-cubic feet ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3,309,966, ikhuphuke ngamamitha ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-79.150, noma i-2.45%; Uhlu lwezimpahla lwalungaphezulu kwama-cubic feet ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-740.365 kunonyaka odlule, okuwukukhula ngo-28.81%.

Kuleli sonto, izinga lokushisa eYurophu nase-United States liye landa kancane kancane, futhi isidingo segesi yemvelo esifundeni siye sanda, okwenza ukwanda kokusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo, nokushayela izinga lokukhula kwempahla yegesi yemvelo eYurophu nase-United States. lehlile, phakathi kwalokho ukunikezwa komfula e-United States kuye kwaba buthaka, futhi izinga lokukhula kwempahla lehle kakhulu.

Amathrendi we-inventory yegesi yemvelo yamazwe ngamazwe

c) Ukungenisa nokuthekelisa uketshezi

Lo mjikelezo (07.31-08.06) i-US kulindeleke ukuthi ingenise 0m³; Ivolumu yokuthekelisa elindelekile yase-United States ingu-3700000m³, ephansi ngo-5.13% kunevolumu yangempela yokuthekelisa engu-3900000m³ emjikelezweni odlule.

Njengamanje, isidingo sokungeniswa kwe-Eurasian LNG sihlala sizinzile, sithintwe imikhawulo yokugeleza kwePanama Canal, ukuthunyelwa kwe-LNG yase-United States kwehlile.

a) Uhlolojikelele lwemakethe

Kusukela ngo-Agasti 2, intengo yesiteshi sokwamukela i-LNG yayingu-4106 yuan/ton, yehle ngo-0.61% kusukela ngesonto eledlule, yehle ngo-42.23% unyaka nonyaka; Intengo yendawo ekhiqizayo eyinhloko yayingu-3,643 yuan/ton, yehle ngo-4.76% kusukela ngesonto eledlule kanye no-45.11% unyaka nonyaka.

Izintengo zasekhaya ezikhuphuka nomfula zikhombise ukwehla, izindleko zemithombo yoketshezi yasekhaya yehla, ukuthutha umfula ukhuphuka, iziteshi zokwamukela zizonke zahlala zizinzile, kanye nentengo yokuthunyelwa kwemakethe iyonke yehla.

Kusukela ngomhla ka-2 Agasti, intengo emaphakathi ye-LNG etholwe ezweni lonke yayingu-4,051 yuan/ton, yehle ngo-3.09% kusukela ngesonto eledlule futhi yehle ngo-42.8% unyaka nonyaka. Isidingo se-downstream asinamandla, ukwehla kwezintengo ezikhuphukayo kulawula izintengo ezehla nomfula, nezintengo ezitholwa yimakethe ziyehla.

Kusukela ngomhla ka-2 Agasti, isamba sezitshalo zasekhaya ze-LNG sasingamathani angu-306,300 ngosuku olufanayo, sikhuphuke ngo-4.43% kusukela esikhathini esedlule. Ngenxa yomthelela wesishingishane, ukuthunyelwa komfula kuye kwavinjwa, futhi ukuthengiswa komfula kwaqhubeka kwehlisa izintengo, kodwa isidingo esiphansi somfula sasibuthakathaka, futhi uhlu lwezimpahla zasefekthri lwakhuphuka.

Ishadi lentengo yasekhaya ye-LNG

b) Ukuhlinzeka

Kuleli sonto (07.27-08.02) Idatha ye-233 yasekhaya ye-LNG yokuhlola izinga lokusebenza kwezitshalo ibonisa ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwangempela kwezikwele eziyizigidi ezingu-635,415, lokhu ngoLwesithathu izinga lokusebenza lika-56.6%, elifanayo nesonto eledlule. Izinga lokusebenza langoLwesithathu elisebenzayo lama-56.59%, lehle ngamaphesenti angama-2.76 ukusuka ngesonto eledlule. Isibalo sezitshalo ezintsha ezizovalwa futhi zigcinwe zisesimweni esi-4, esinamandla afinyelela ku-8 million cubic metres/ngosuku; Inani lamafekthri asanda kuqalwa kabusha laliyi-7, amandla ayo afinyelela ku-4.62 million cubic metres/ngosuku. (Qaphela: Umthamo wokungenzi lutho uchazwa njengokukhiqizwa okuyekwe isikhathi esingaphezu kweminyaka emi-2; Umthamo osebenzayo ubhekisa kumthamo we-LNG ngemuva kokungabandakanyi umthamo wokungenzi lutho. Isamba somthamo wokukhiqiza we-LNG wasekhaya singama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyi-159.75/ngosuku, nokuvalwa kwesikhathi eside okungu-28, 7.29 ama-cubic metres ayizigidi/ngosuku lokungenzi lutho kanye ne-152.46 million cubic metres/ngosuku lomthamo osebenzayo.

Mayelana noketshezi lwasolwandle, isamba sezinto ezithwala i-LNG ezingama-20 zamukelwe eziteshini zokwamukela zasekhaya eziyi-14 kulo mjikelezo, nenani lemikhumbi ethola umkhumbi owodwa ngaphansi kwesonto eledlule, kanye nevolumu yokufika kwechweba lamathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.403, ikhuphuke ngo-13.33% 1.26 million amathani ngesonto eledlule. Amazwe omthombo oyinhloko wokungenisa kulo mjikelezo yi-Australia, Qatar neRussia, okufike amathani angama-494,800, amathani angama-354,800 namathani angama-223,800, ngokulandelana. Mayelana neziteshi zokwamukela, i-CNOOC Dapeng kanye ne-State Grid Diafu bathole imikhumbi engu-3, ​​i-CNOOC Zhuhai kanye ne-State Grid Tianjin ngayinye yathola imikhumbi emi-2, kanti esinye iziteshi ezitholayo zithole umkhumbi ongu-1.

c) Isidingo

Ingqikithi yesidingo se-LNG yasekhaya kuleli sonto (07.26-08.01) ibingamathani angama-702,900, ukwehla kwamathani ayi-10,500, noma u-1.47%, kusukela ngesonto eledlule (07.19-07.25). Ukuthunyelwa kwasefekthri kwasekhaya kufinyelele amathani angu-402,000, kwehle ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-0.17, noma ngo-0.42%, kusukela ngesonto eledlule (07.19-07.25). Ukuthengiswa kwefekthri yoketshezi kwehlise izintengo, kodwa ngenxa yezokuthutha zesishingishane, ezithinta ukuthunyelwa komfula, inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwefekthri lasekhaya lehle kancane.

Ngokuphathelene noketshezi lwasolwandle, inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kweziteshi zokwamukela ekhaya laliyizimoto eziyi-14327, lehle ngo-2.86% lisuka ezimotweni eziyi-14749 ngesonto eledlule (07.19-07.25), kanti ukwehla okuphelele kwentengo yeziteshi zokwamukela bekukuncane, futhi ukuthengiswa kwemakethe. i-radius yancipha, okwaholela ekwehleni kokuthunyelwa kwamathangi.6