Izigaba ezahlukene zemakethe zinezidingo ezahlukene zekhwalithi ye-ammonia kanye nezindleko.

Kusukela ngo-2022, ukuhlela iphrojekthi ye-ammonia eluhlaza yasekhaya kuye kwafakwa ekwakhiweni, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi isikhathi sokwakhiwa kwephrojekthi ngokuvamile siyiminyaka emi-2 kuya kwemi-3, iphrojekthi ye-ammonia eluhlaza yasekhaya isizoletha ukukhiqizwa okuhlanganisiwe. Imboni ibikezela ukuthi ngo-2024, i-ammonia eluhlaza yasekhaya izofinyelela ukungena kweqoqo emakethe, futhi amandla okuhlinzeka azosondela ku-1 million tons/ngonyaka ngo-2025. Ngokombono wesidingo semakethe ye-ammonia yokwenziwa, izingxenye ezahlukene zemakethe zinezidingo ezahlukene zekhwalithi yomkhiqizo kanye nentengo ye-ammonia yokwenziwa, futhi kuyadingeka ukuqala ngezici zethrendi zesixhumanisi ngasinye semakethe ukuhlola ithuba lemakethe le-ammonia eluhlaza.

Ngokusekelwe kuphethini yokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo se-ammonia yokwenziwa eShayina, isidingo sekhwalithi yomkhiqizo sengxenye ngayinye yemakethe kanye nezindleko ze-ammonia, ucwaningo lwe-NENG Jing lumane luhlaziye inzuzo kanye nendawo yemakethe ye-ammonia eluhlaza ohlangothini ngalunye lwemakethe ukuze kubhekiselwe embonini.

01 Imakethe ye-ammonia eluhlaza inezindlela ezintathu eziyinhloko

Kulesi sigaba, ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo semakethe ye-ammonia yokwenziwa yasekhaya kuyalingana, futhi kukhona ingcindezi ethile yomthamo oweqile.

Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, ukusetshenziswa okubonakalayo kuyaqhubeka nokukhula. Ngokusho kwe-National Bureau of Statistics kanye nedatha yentela, imakethe ye-ammonia yokwenziwa ibuswa ukusetshenziswa kwasekhaya, kanti ukusetshenziswa okubonakalayo kwe-ammonia yokwenziwa yasekhaya kuzokhula cishe ngo-1% minyaka yonke kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2022, kufinyelele cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingama-53.2 ngo-2022. Ngo-2025, ngokwanda kokukhiqizwa kwe-caprolactam namanye amadivayisi angezansi, kulindeleke ukuthi kusekele ukukhula kokusetshenziswa kwe-ammonia yokwenziwa, futhi ukusetshenziswa okubonakalayo kuzofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingama-60.

Ngasohlangothini lokuphakelwa, umthamo wokukhiqiza wonke we-ammonia yokwenziwa usesigabeni "sokwehla". Ngokusho kwedatha ye-Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, selokhu kwavulwa umthamo wokukhiqiza ongemuva we-ammonia yokwenziwa eShayina ngesikhathi "se-13th Five-Year Plan", ukulungiswa kwesakhiwo samandla okukhiqiza sekuqediwe ngo-2022, futhi umthamo wokukhiqiza we-ammonia yokwenziwa ushintshile kusukela ekwehleni kuya ekukhuleni okokuqala, ululama kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-64.88 ngonyaka ngo-2021 kuya kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-67.6 ngonyaka, futhi kuhlelwe ukuthi kutholakale amathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-4 ngonyaka (ngaphandle kwe-ammonia eluhlaza). Ngo-2025, umthamo wokukhiqiza noma ngaphezulu kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-70 ngonyaka, ingozi yomthamo omkhulu iphezulu.

Ezolimo, imboni yamakhemikhali kanye namandla kuzoba yizikhombisi-ndlela ezintathu eziyinhloko zemakethe ye-ammonia yokwenziwa kanye ne-ammonia eluhlaza. Amasimu ezolimo namakhemikhali akha imakethe yamasheya ye-ammonia yokwenziwa. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-Zhuochuang Information, ngo-2022, ukusetshenziswa kwe-ammonia yokwenziwa ensimini yezolimo kuzobalelwa cishe ku-69% wokusetshenziswa okuphelele kwe-ammonia yokwenziwa eShayina, ikakhulukazi ekukhiqizweni kwe-urea, umanyolo we-phosphate kanye neminye imifino; Ukusetshenziswa kwe-ammonia yokwenziwa embonini yamakhemikhali kubalelwa cishe ku-31%, esetshenziswa kakhulu ekukhiqizweni kwemikhiqizo yamakhemikhali efana ne-nitric acid, i-caprolactam kanye ne-acrylonitrile. Umkhakha wamandla uyimakethe yesikhathi esizayo ye-ammonia yokwenziwa. Ngokwezibalo kanye nokubalwa kocwaningo lwe-Energy, kulesi sigaba, ukusetshenziswa kwe-ammonia yokwenziwa ensimini yamandla kusengaphansi kuka-0.1% wokusetshenziswa okuphelele kwe-ammonia yokwenziwa, futhi ngo-2050, isilinganiso sokusetshenziswa kwe-ammonia yokwenziwa ensimini yamandla kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ngaphezu kuka-25%, futhi izimo ezingaba khona zokusetshenziswa zifaka phakathi abathwali besitoreji se-hydrogen, uphethiloli wokuthutha, kanye nokushiswa kwe-ammonia ezitshalweni zamandla ezishisayo.

02 Isidingo sezolimo – Ukulawulwa kwezindleko okuphansi kunamandla, inzuzo eluhlaza ye-ammonia incane kancane, isidingo se-ammonia ensimini yezolimo sizinzile. Isimo sokusetshenziswa kwe-ammonia ensimini yezolimo sihlanganisa kakhulu ukukhiqizwa komanyolo we-urea kanye ne-ammonium phosphate. Phakathi kwazo, ukukhiqizwa kwe-urea kuyisimo esikhulu sokusetshenziswa kwe-ammonia ensimini yezolimo, futhi kusetshenziswa amathani angu-0.57-0.62 e-ammonia kuyo yonke ithani elilodwa le-urea elikhiqizwayo. Ngokusho kwe-National Bureau of Statistics, kusukela ngo-2018 kuya ku-2022, ukukhiqizwa kwe-urea yasekhaya kuye kushintshashintsha cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingama-50 ngonyaka, kanti isidingo esifanayo se-ammonia yokwenziwa sasicishe sibe amathani ayizigidi ezingama-30 ngonyaka. Inani le-ammonia elisetshenziswa umanyolo we-ammonium phosphate licishe libe amathani ayizigidi ezi-5 ngonyaka, okuyinto futhi ezinzile.

Ukukhiqizwa komanyolo we-nitrogen ensimini yezolimo kunezidingo ezikhululekile zokuhlanzeka kanye nekhwalithi yezinto zokusetshenziswa ze-ammonia. Ngokwezinga likazwelonke le-GB536-88, i-ammonia ewuketshezi inemikhiqizo emihle kakhulu, imikhiqizo yekilasi lokuqala, imikhiqizo efanelekile amazinga amathathu, okuqukethwe kwe-ammonia kufinyelele ku-99.9%, 99.8%, 99.6% noma ngaphezulu. Umanyolo we-nitrogen, njenge-urea, unezidingo ezibanzi zekhwalithi kanye nokuhlanzeka kwemikhiqizo, futhi abakhiqizi ngokuvamile badinga izinto zokusetshenziswa ze-ammonia eziwuketshezi ukuze bafinyelele izinga lemikhiqizo efanelekile. Izindleko eziphelele ze-ammonia kwezolimo ziphansi kakhulu. Ngokombono wokunikezwa kwe-ammonia kanye nezindleko ze-ammonia, i-urea yasekhaya kanye nokukhiqizwa komanyolo we-ammonium phosphate kunesitshalo se-ammonia esakhelwe wena, izindleko ze-ammonia zincike entengo yemakethe yamalahle, igesi yemvelo kanye nokusebenza kahle kwesitshalo se-ammonia, izindleko ze-ammonia ngokuvamile ziyi-1500 ~ 3000 yuan/ton. Sekukonke, intengo eyamukelekayo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ze-ammonia ensimini yezolimo ingaphansi kwama-yuan angu-4000/ton. Ngokusho kwedatha yomkhiqizo omningi womphakathi webhizinisi, kusukela ngo-2018 kuya ku-2022, i-urea icishe ibe yi-yuan engu-2,600/ton ngentengo ephezulu kakhulu, kanye ne-yuan engu-1,700/ton ngentengo ephansi kakhulu. Ucwaningo lwamandla luhlanganiswe nezigaba ezahlukahlukene zezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa eziphelele, izindleko zenqubo kanye nezinye izici, uma kungekho ukulahlekelwa, i-urea ngamanani aphezulu kakhulu naphansi kakhulu ahambisana nezindleko ze-ammonia ezingaba yi-yuan engu-3900/ton kuya ku-yuan engu-2200/ton, emgqeni wezindleko ze-ammonia eluhlaza nangaphansi kwezinga.