[Isingeniso]: Ezigabeni ezintathu zokuqala zika-2023, umkhuba jikelele wekusasa le-methanol lasekhaya wehla kuqala wabe usukhuphuka, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, umqondo omuhle ongenamkhawulo womehluko wamanani wamanje wenza inzuzo enhle, futhi ukusakazwa kwezimpahla kwaqhubeka nokuba nzima, okwenza ingxenye yokuqala yonyaka ibe njalo ngenyanga ngaphansi kokusebenza okuqinile; I-Futures ibuye emuva kwikota yesithathu, kodwa ichweba lavula imodi yokugcina ehlanganisiwe, futhi indawo yaqeda iphethini ye-premium kuze kube yizinyanga eziyi-10.

Ushintsho lokusebenza kwemakethe phakathi nonyaka lungahlukaniswa ngezigaba ezimbili:

Isigaba sokuqala (Januwari 1 - Juni 12): lesi sigaba sokushaqeka kwentengo kawoyela emhlabeni wonke sehle, yize kwaba nokwehla okukhulu ngesikhathi sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-Opec, kodwa isikhathi sasifushane, futhi ngokushesha sehle futhi ngenxa yobunzima bokulandelwa kwesidingo. Ikusasa le-Methanol kulesi sigaba se-logic eyinhloko yokuhweba uwoyela ongahluziwe, umjikelezo wokunyuka kwenzalo yase-United States kanye nezinye izici ezinkulu kanye nezindleko (okungukuthi, amalahle), amanani amalahle ayaqhubeka nokuwa (le nethiwekhi ilandelela i-Inner Mongolia kuya kumalahle efektri ehle afinyelele ku-620 yuan/ton), isekela ukuhamba kwemali kwamabhizinisi endaweni yokukhiqiza ukuze alulame, inikeze okulindelwe ngaphansi kwengcindezi yediski ngisho noma iphansi elisha, eliphansi lehle laya ku-1953 yuan/ton ngoJuni.

Isigaba sesibili (Juni 13 - Septhemba 28): lesi sigaba ikusasa le-methanol liyehla, ukwehla okubushelelezi okubangelwe yi-logic yezindleko kwaphela, idiski yabonisa ukwesekwa okuqinile ngo-1950-2000 yuan/ton, futhi i-logic eyinhloko yokuhweba ye-rebound yayilindelwe ekudingweni. Uwoyela ongahluziwe esimweni sokunikezwa okuphansi nesidingo sadlula okulindelwe, okwaholela ekunciphiseni okuqhubekayo kwempahla, okusekela ukuphinda okuqinile kwamanani kawoyela; I-Methanol ngokwayo iyi-supply and demand ephindwe kabili, ukunikezwa kwesitoko esikhulu kanye namadivayisi amasha sekufikile, kodwa impahla iyaqhubeka nokuba sesimweni esiphansi, imakethe iyaqonda ukuthi isidingo sendabuko esingezansi sizinzile; Ngesikhathi esifanayo, yize izinga eliphezulu lokunikezwa kokungeniswa lingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.3-1.4 ngenyanga, isisekelo esiphansi sempahla esigabeni sokuqala senza imakethe icabange ukuthi ingcindezi yendawo yechweba ayinkulu, futhi ukunikezwa kwezimpahla ezijikelezayo kuqinile. Ngokuhambisana nokulindela ukuqala kabusha kwe-Xingxing ne-Shenghong kanye nokufika okubalulekile okulandelayo, itafula le-port lidinga ukusekelwa ukwanda kabili kwe-methanol kuma-macro kanye nesidingo sayo. Mhla ziyi-19 kuMandulo, ukwehla okuphezulu kakhulu kwaba yi-2662 yuan/ton.

Uma sibheke phambili kwikota yesine, ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla ezingeniswayo kusukela ngo-Okthoba kuya kuNovemba kusagcinwa ezingeni eliphezulu lamathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-1.3, yize imakethe kulindeleke ukuthi yehle ngaphansi komthelela omubi wemikhawulo yegesi yase-Iran ngoDisemba, kodwa ukuqina kokugcinwa kwesizini noma ngaphansi kunaseminyakeni edlule. Ngaphezu kwalokho, intengo yemakethe yezwekazi ngo-2023 ibilokhu isesimweni esiqinile, futhi ngisho nomthamo wokubuyela emuva eJiangxi, eGuangxi naseHunan ubelokhu uvela eNingizimu China. Kulindeleke ukuthi ebusika buka-2023, iphethini yesifunda ingase ihluke eminyakeni edlule, umehluko wentengo phakathi kwamachweba ezwekazi kanye nelaseMpumalanga China ungase ube nzima kakhulu ukuwandisa ube yivolumu yechweba lempahla yezwekazi, ibhodi lekusasa ligcina intengo yezimpahla ezingeniswayo, enomfutho ophezulu wokunikezwa, kanye nokusekelwa kwezindleko zamandla okulethwa yi-coal kanye ne-oyili eluhlaza, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi i-methanol futures kwikota yesine noma amathuba amakhulu okuguquguquka okubuthakathaka.