[Isingeniso] : Ezingxenyeni ezintathu zokuqala zamakota ka-2023, ukuthambekela okuphelele kwekusasa le-methanol yasekhaya kwehle kuqala kwase kukhuphuka, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, umbono omuhle ongenamkhawulo womehluko wamanani wamanje wenze inzuzo enhle, kanye nokusakazwa kwe izimpahla zaqhubeka ziqinile, okwenza ingxenye yokuqala yonyaka ngokuyisisekelo ibe nyanga zonke ngaphansi kokusebenza okuqinile okuthambile; I-futures ibuyele emuva ngekota yesithathu, kodwa imbobo yavula imodi yokugcina eqoqiwe, futhi indawo yaqeda iphethini yeprimiyamu isikhathi esingafika ezinyangeni eziyi-10.

Ukushintsha kokusebenza kwemakethe phakathi nonyaka kungahlukaniswa izigaba ezimbili:

Isigaba sokuqala (Januwari 1 - Juni 12) : lesi sigaba sokushaqeka kwentengo kawoyela emhlabeni wonke siwe, nakuba kwakukhona ukuphindaphinda okubukhali ngesikhathi sokusika ukukhiqizwa kwe-Opec, kodwa isikhathi sasifushane, futhi ngokushesha saphinde sawa ngenxa yobunzima bokulandelwa kwesidingo. -phezulu. Ikusasa le-Methanol kulesi sigaba somqondo oyinhloko wokuhweba uwoyela ongahluziwe, umjikelezo wezinga lenzalo lase-United States nezinye izici ezinkulu nezindleko (okungukuthi, amalahle), amanani amalahle ayaqhubeka nokwehla (le nethiwekhi ilandelela i-Inner Mongolia eya embonini yamalahle. kuya kwephansi eduze kwama-yuan/ton angu-620), isekela ukuhamba kwemali kwamabhizinisi endaweni yokukhiqiza ukuze alulame, ahlinzeke okulindelekile ngaphansi kwengcindezi yediski ngisho nokuphansi okusha, okuphansi kakhulu kwehle kwafika ku-1953 yuan/ton ngo-June.

Isigaba sesibili (Juni 13 - Septhemba 28) : lesi sigaba ikusasa le-methanol lihlehlisiwe, ukwehla okushelelayo okulethwe i-logic yezindleko kwaphela, idiski yabonisa ukwesekwa okuqinile ngo-1950-2000 yuan/ton, kanye nengqondo yokuhweba eyinhloko ye-rebound. kwakulindeleke ukuthi ifuneke. Uwoyela ongahluziwe esimweni sokutholakala okuphansi kanye nesidingo seqe ngaphezu kwalokho obekulindelwe, okuholele ekuncipheni okuqhubekayo kwempahla, okusekela ukubuya okunamandla kwamanani kawoyela; I-Methanol ngokwayo iwukuhlinzeka nokufunwa okuphindwe kabili, ukunikezwa kwezwe elikhulu kwesitoko kanye namadivayisi amasha sekufikile, kodwa i-inventory iyaqhubeka nokuba sezingeni eliphansi, imakethe iyaqonda ukuthi isidingo sendabuko esingaphansi komfula sizinzile; Ngesikhathi esifanayo, nakuba izinga eliphezulu lokulethwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe liyi-1.3-1.4 million amathani/ngenyanga, isisekelo esiphansi se-inventory esigabeni sokuqala senza imakethe icabange ukuthi ingcindezi yendawo yechweba ayinkulu, kanye nokuhlinzekwa kwezimpahla ezijikelezayo. iqinile. Ngokuhambisana nokulindela ukuqaliswa kabusha kwe-Xingxing ne-Shenghong kanye nokufika okuqinile okwalandela, ithebula lechweba lidinga ukusekelwa ukukhushulwa kabili kwe-methanol ku-macro kanye nesidingo sayo. Septhemba 19, i-rebound ephakeme kakhulu eya ku-2662 yuan/ton.

Sibheke phambili kwikota yesine, ukunikezwa kokungenisa okuvela ngo-Okthoba kuya kuNovemba kusagcinwe ezingeni eliphezulu lamathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-1.3, nakuba imakethe kulindeleke ukuthi inciphise ngaphansi komthelela omubi wemikhawulo yegesi yase-Iran ngoDisemba, kodwa isitoreji sonyaka. umfutho noma ngaphansi kunaseminyakeni edlule. Ngaphezu kwalokho, intengo yemakethe yezwekazi ngo-2023 ibisesimweni esiqinile, futhi ngisho nevolumu yokubuyela emuva eJiangxi, eGuangxi naseHunan ivame ukwenzeka eSouth China. Kulindeleke ukuthi ebusika bango-2023, iphethini yesifunda ingase yehluke eminyakeni edlule, umehluko wamanani phakathi kwamachweba ezwekazi kanye nase-East China ungase ube nzima kakhulu ukunwetshwa kumthamo wetheku le-arbitrage we-mainland cargo, ibhodi lekusasa ligcina intengo. wezimpahla eziphuma kwamanye amazwe, ezinomfutho ophakeme wokuhlinzeka, kanye nokusekelwa kwezindleko zamandla okulethwa amalahle namafutha aluhlaza, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ikusasa le-methanol ngekota yesine noma amathuba amakhulu okuguquguquka okubuthakathaka.