Izimakethe zaseYurophu zihlale ziphakeme futhi ziguquguquka kuleli sonto, futhi isimo saseMpumalanga Ephakathi saphoqa i-Chevron ukuthi ivale insimu yayo yegesi engasogwini eSyria, futhi imakethe yaqhubeka nokutatazela, kodwa amanani entengo yekusasa le-TTF ayephezulu futhi eguquguqukayo ngenxa yokugcwala kwemakethe kwamanje.

E-United States, ngenxa yesidingo esivilaphayo kanye nokuba buthakathaka kokwethuka, ukuthunyelwa kwe-LNG yase-United States kwehlile kuleli sonto, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwehlile, kanye nokunikezwa kwegesi eluhlaza evela ezikhumulweni zokuthumela ngaphandle kuye kwaba buthaka, kodwa ngenxa yokushintshwa kwezinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo ze-NG. kule nyanga, intengo yegesi yemvelo e-United States ikhuphukile.

a) Uhlolojikelele lwemakethe

Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 24, inani lekusasa le-United States Henry Port gas yemvelo (NG) laliyi-3.322 US dollars / million thermal British, uma kuqhathaniswa nomjikelezo wangaphambilini (10.17) okhuphuke ngo-0.243 US dollar / million British thermal, ukwanda kwe-7.89%; Intengo yesikhathi esizayo yegesi yemvelo yase-Dutch (TTF) yayingu-$15.304 / mmBTU, ikhuphuke ngo-$0.114 / mmBTU kusukela kumjikelezo odlule (10.17), noma u-0.75%.

E-United States, amanani esikhathi esizayo ase-United States Henry Port (NG) abonise umkhuba wokubuyela emuva ngemva kokwehla okuphelele kwesonto, amanani entengo yegesi yemvelo yase-United States abonise ukwehla kuleli sonto, kodwa ngenxa yomthelela wokuguqulwa kwenkontileka, Izintengo zekusasa le-NG zikhuphuke.

Ngasohlangothini lokuthekelisa, ukuthunyelwa kwe-LNG yase-US kwehle kuleli sonto ngenxa yesidingo esibuthaka kanye nokwethuka okunciphayo, nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwehlile.

Ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, i-United States Henry Port futures (NG) iyisimo esiphansi sokukhuphuka, intengo yase-United States Henry Port futures (NG) iya ku-3.34 US dollars/million fever British eduze, i-KDJ low isizophuma yemfoloko, i-MACD ngaphansi kwe-zero bottoming, ukwehla kumile, intengo yase-United States Henry Port futures (NG) kuleli sonto ibonise ukwehla kwe-rebound.

E-Europe, i-inventory yemakethe yaseYurophu iqhubekile nokukhula, ngokusho kwedatha ye-European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association ibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngo-Okthoba 23, inani eliphelele laseYurophu laliyi-1123Twh, ngesabelo somthamo we-98.63%, ukukhuphuka ngo-0.05% usuku lwangaphambilini, kanye nokwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwe-inventory.

Izimakethe zaseYurophu zihlale ziphakeme futhi ziguquguquka kuleli sonto, futhi isimo saseMpumalanga Ephakathi saphoqa i-Chevron ukuthi ivale insimu yayo yegesi engasogwini eSyria, futhi imakethe yaqhubeka nokutatazela, kodwa amanani entengo yekusasa le-TTF ayephezulu futhi eguquguqukayo ngenxa yokugcwala kwemakethe kwamanje.

Kusukela ngomhla ka-24 Okthoba, i-US Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) kulindeleke ukuthi ibone izintengo zika-$2.95 / mmBTU, zikhuphuke ngo-$0.01 / mmBTU ukusuka kwikota edlule (10.17), okunyuke ngo-0.34%. Intengo yendawo ye-Canadian Natural Gas (AECO) yayingu-$1.818 / mmBTU, ikhuphuke ngo-$0.1 / mmBTU kusukela enyangeni edlule (10.17), inyuke ngo-5.83%.

I-Henry Port Natural Gas (HH) ilindele ukuthi izintengo ezikhona zihlale zizinzile, ukuthunyelwa kwe-LNG kwamanye amazwe sekuntekenteke, isidingo esikhulu semakethe yabathengi ngaphandle kwesifunda ukuze sihlale sizinzile, akukho ukwesekwa okusobala okusobala, i-Henry Port Natural gas (HH) kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale izintengo zendawo .

Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 24, intengo ye-Northeast Asia yokufika yaseChina (DES) yayingu-$17.25 / million BTU, ikhuphuke ngo-$0.875 / million BTU kusukela kukota yangaphambilini (10.17), ukukhuphuka ngo-5.34%; Intengo yendawo ye-TTF yayingu-$14.955 / mmBTU, ikhuphuke ngo-$0.898 / mmBTU kusukela kukota edlule (10.17), inyuke ngo-6.39%.

Izintengo ezivamile zabathengi ziyakhula, ukutatazela kwabathengi abayinhloko kugcwele, ukuqagela kwemakethe kunamandla, ukuthengiswa kwenani eliphezulu kwabathengisi abakhuphuka nomfula, okushayela izintengo zabathengi abakhulu.

b) Inventory

Isonto eliphele ngo-Okthoba 13, ngokusho kwe-US Energy Agency, ukufakwa kwegesi yemvelo yase-US bekungama-cubic feet ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3,626, okuwukwanda kwama-cubic feet ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-97, noma u-2.8%; Uhlu lwezimpahla bezingu-3,000 cubic feet, noma u-9.0%, ngaphezu konyaka odlule. Lokho kungu-175 billion cubic feet, noma u-5.1%, ngaphezu kwesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu.

Ngesonto eliphele ngo-Okthoba 13, izinsiza zegesi zaseYurophu zime kuma-cubic feet ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3,926.271, zikhuphuke ngo-43.34 billion cubic feet, noma u-1.12%, kusukela ngesonto eledlule, ngokusho kwe-European Gas Infrastructure Association. Uhlu lwempahla lwalungamamitha ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-319.287, noma u-8.85%, ngaphezu konyaka odlule.

Kuleli sonto, i-inventory yegesi yemvelo yase-US yenyuka kancane kancane, ngenxa yamanani aphezulu, okuholela ekutheni abathengayo balinde futhi babone isimo sengqondo, isidingo esikhulu sokuthengwa kwemakethe yabathengi sehle kakhulu, izinga lokukhula kwempahla yase-US lenyuka. I-Inventories e-Europe ikhule kancane kancane, manje ikhuphukela cishe ku-98%, futhi ukwehla kokukhula kwempahla kulindeleke ukuthi kuhambe kancane ngokuzayo.

c) Ukungenisa nokuthekelisa uketshezi

I-US kulindeleke ukuthi ingenise u-0m³ kulo mjikelezo (10.23-10.29); I-United States kulindeleke ukuthi ithumele ku-3,900,000 m³, okungaphansi ngo-4.88% kunevolumu yangempela yokuthekelisa engu-410,00,000 m³ emjikelezweni odlule.

Okwamanje, isidingo esibuthakathaka emakethe enkulu yabathengi kanye nempahla ephezulu kuholele ekwehleni kokuthunyelwa kwe-US LNG ngaphandle.

a) Uhlolojikelele lwemakethe

Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 25, intengo yokugcina ye-LNG yayingu-5,268 yuan/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-7% kusukela ngesonto eledlule, yehle ngo-32.45% unyaka nonyaka; Intengo yendawo ekhiqizayo eyinhloko yayingu-4,772 yuan/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-8.53% kusukela ngesonto eledlule futhi yehle ngo-27.43% unyaka nonyaka.

Izintengo ezikhuphukayo zibonisa ithrendi ekhuphukayo. Ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwezindleko zemboni yoketshezi yaseNorthwest kanye nentengo ephezulu yoketshezi lwasolwandle, izintengo ezikhuphuka nomfula ziyakhuphuka futhi ukuthunyelwa kuqhutshwa ukukhuphuka kwezintengo zokuthunyelwa.

Kusukela ngomhla ka-25 Okthoba, inani lentengo elimaphakathi le-LNG elitholwe ezweni lonke lalingu-5208 yuan/ton, lenyuke ngo-7.23% kusukela ngesonto eledlule lehle ngo-28.12% unyaka nonyaka. Izinsiza ezikhuphuka nomfula zithintwa izindleko zokuthunyelwa, okwenza imakethe ithole amanani entengo aphezulu.

Kusukela ngomhla zingama-24 kuMfumfu, isamba sezitshalo zasekhaya ze-LNG sasingamathani angama-328,300 ngosuku olufanayo, kwehle ngo-14.84% kusukela esikhathini esedlule. Njengoba ukunyuka komfula kukhuphule izintengo ngokulandelana kanye nezimpahla ezithengisiwe, ukuthengiswa kwezinsiza kwangaphambi kwesikhathi kwaba bushelelezi, okuholele ekwehleni kohlu lwamagama.

b) Ukuhlinzeka

Kuleli sonto (10.19-10.25) izinga lokusebenza 236 ezifuywayo LNG idatha ucwaningo ucwaningo lubonisa ukuthi ukukhiqizwa langempela 742.94 million square, lokhu ngoLwesithathu izinga lokusebenza 64.6%, uzinzile ngesonto eledlule. Izinga lokusebenza langoLwesithathu elisebenzayo lama-67.64%, likhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.01 ukusuka ngesonto eledlule. Inombolo yezitshalo ezintsha ezizolungiswa futhi zivaliwe zingu-1, ezinomthamo ophelele wama-cubic metres angama-700,000/ngosuku; Inani lezimboni ezisanda kuqaliswa kabusha ngu-0, ezinomthamo ophelele wamamitha-skwele ayisigidi/ngosuku. (Qaphela: Umthamo wokungenzi lutho uchazwa njengokukhiqizwa okuyekwe isikhathi esingaphezu kweminyaka emi-2; Umthamo osebenzayo ubhekisela kumthamo we-LNG ngemva kokungabandakanyi umthamo wokungenzi lutho. Isamba somthamo wokukhiqiza we-LNG wasekhaya singama-cubic metres ayizigidi ezingu-163.05/ngosuku, nokuvalwa kwesikhathi eside okungu-28, 7.29 ama-cubic metres ayizigidi/ngosuku lomthamo wokungenzi lutho kanye ne-155.76 million cubic metres/ngosuku lomthamo osebenzayo.)

Mayelana noketshezi lwasolwandle, isamba sezinkampani ezithwala i-LNG ezingama-20 zamukelwe eziteshini zokwamukela zasekhaya eziyi-13 kulo mjikelezo, ukwanda kwemikhumbi emi-5 ngesonto eledlule, kanti umthamo wechweba wawungamathani ayi-1,291,300, 37.49% uma kuqhathaniswa namathani angama-939,200 ngesonto eledlule. Amazwe omthombo wokungenisa oyinhloko kulo mjikelezo yi-Australia, Qatar neMalaysia, okufika echwebeni amathani angama-573,800, amathani angama-322,900 kanye namathani ayi-160,700, ngokulandelana. Esiteshini ngasinye sokwamukela, i-CNOOC Dapeng yathola imikhumbi emi-3, i-CNPC Caofeidian ne-CNOOC Binhai yathola imikhumbi emi-2 ngayinye, kanti ezinye iziteshi ezamukelayo zathola umkhumbi ongu-1 sisinye.

c) Isidingo

Ingqikithi yesidingo sasekhaya se-LNG kuleli sonto (10.18-10.24) singamathani angama-721,400, ukwehla kwamathani angama-53,700, noma u-6.93%, kusukela ngesonto eledlule (10.11-10.17). Ukuthunyelwa kwasefekthri kwasekhaya kufinyelele amathani angu-454,200, ukwehla okungamathani angu-35,800, noma u-7.31%, kusukela ngesonto eledlule (10.11-10.17). Ngenxa yokuthi isiteshi esamukelayo kanye nefekthri ye-liquid kukhuphule intengo yokuthunyelwa, ukumelana nokwehla kwamanani aphezulu okwehla komfula, okuholele ekunciphiseni kokuthunyelwa.

Mayelana noketshezi lwasolwandle, isamba sempahla ethunyelwe eziteshini zokwamukela izivakashi ezindlini bekuyizimoto eziyi-14,055, zehle ngo-9.48% zisuka ezimotweni eziyi-14,055 ngesonto eledlule (10.11-10.17), isiteshi esamukelayo senyuse intengo yokuthunyelwa, ukwehla nomfula bekunzima kakhulu, kanti ukuthunyelwa komthamo jikelele wamathangi kwehlile.