Izindaba ezinhle zanda ngosuku olulandelayo ngemuva kokuba irabha ivukile

Kuleli sonto, ukusebenza komnotho wezimpahla kuqhubekile nokubuya esimweni esihle, kushukumisa umuzwa wokukhula kwemakethe, inani lezinto zokusetshenziswa zakwamanye amazwe lalingaphansi kwalokho obekulindelwe, intengo yokuthenga izinto zokusetshenziswa yayiqinile, kanti uhlangothi lokunikezwa lukhuphule intengo yerabha. Iglu emnyama yokugcina isitoreji, ukukhula kweglue enombala okhanyayo kwehle, ingcindezi yesitokwe yehlile. Izici ezinhle eziyisisekelo ziyabusa, futhi intshisekelo ephezulu yentengo yerabha inamandla.

Ngokuwa kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe, isimo semakethe yezimpahla asisekho, futhi intengo yerabha ibuyiselwa emuva ngemva kokukhuphuka. Kusukela ngoNovemba 17, intengo yerabha yemvelo yehle (i-latex ephelele ingu-13050 yuan/ton, -250/-1.88%; Inombolo 20 ejwayelekile yaseThailand ingu-1490 amadola ase-US/ton, -30/-1.97%, okulingana no-10687 yuan/ton; Inombolo 20 Thai Mix ingu-12200 yuan/ton, -150/-1.21%).

Uhlangothi lokunikezwa luhlala luhle

Indawo yokukhiqiza yaseThailand: Imvula iyonke eThailand ikhuphukile uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esedlule, umsebenzi wokusika irabha enyakatho-mpumalanga awunawo umthelela omkhulu, umkhiqizo wezinto zokusetshenziswa ukhombisa ukuthambekela kokukhula okuncane, imvula yesigaba saseningizimu, inani lokukhiqizwa kwerabha lisencane kakhulu, intengo yangempela yokuthenga izinto zokusetshenziswa iphakeme kunentengo yemakethe. Amanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa kulindeleke ukuthi aqine, okunikezwayo kwamanye amazwe kuyakhuphuka, kodwa uma kuqhathaniswa namanani okuthengisa kanye nezinto zokusetshenziswa, inzuzo yokukhiqiza yesitshalo sokucubungula isese yisimo sokulahlekelwa, inani lincane futhi intengo iphezulu, ifektri ayinasithakazelo ngokuthengwa kwamanani aphezulu ezinto zokusetshenziswa, futhi ukuthunyelwa kuthengiswa kakhulu ezinyangeni ezikude. Kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kweglue eThailand kuzokwehla ngo-20% ngonyaka, futhi kusadingeka ukunaka kakhulu umkhiqizo wezinto zokusetshenziswa zesikhathi saseThailand saseWang esikhathini esizayo.

Indawo yokukhiqiza yaseYunnan: Intengo yokuthenga izinto zokusetshenziswa endaweni yokukhiqiza yaseYunnan inamandla. Phakathi nesonto, imvula endaweni yokukhiqiza yaseYunnan incane, futhi izinto zokusetshenziswa zisesimweni esinzima. Ngizwe ukuthi inani elivela eMyanmar naseLaos eBanna Port lincishisiwe kakhulu, futhi isizathu sokwehla ukuthi eziningi zazo zenziwe imikhiqizo eqediwe, kanti inani lemikhiqizo eqediwe aliningi, futhi izimpahla eziningi eziphumayo zisezindaweni zabadayisi be-arbitrage. Ezinye izimboni zokucubungula zithi ukuqala komsebenzi phakathi nesonto kuncishisiwe ngesigamu, kodwa futhi kuncike ekunciphiseni kokutholakala kwezinto zokusetshenziswa.

Indawo yokukhiqiza yaseHainan: Intengo yokuthenga izinto zokusetshenziswa endaweni yokukhiqiza yaseHainan ilungiswa kancane kancane. Njengamanje, intengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ihlala iphezulu, futhi intshiseko yabalimi beglue inhle, kodwa izindawo eziningi zokukhiqiza zisesena imvula phakathi nesonto, okuthinta ukukhuthazwa komsebenzi wokusika irabha. Sezwa ukuthi ekupheleni kwesonto, inani lansuku zonke leglue eqoqwe esiqhingini licishe libe ngaphezu kwamathani angu-3,000, lincishiswe kancane kusukela ekuqaleni kwesonto, ukuhlinzekwa kweglue okuphelele akwanele, akukwazi ukuhlangabezana nezidingo ezijwayelekile zokukhiqiza zezimboni ezahlukene zokucubungula, ezinye izimboni ezizimele empeleni zithola amanani eglue angu-13100-13300 yuan, intengo ephezulu icishe ibe ngu-13400 yuan. Ukuhweba emakethe yezindawo zobisi ezihlanganisiwe kusebenza kakhulu phakathi nesonto, futhi ngokufika kobusika, izitshalo zokucubungula zikhulise intshiseko yazo yokuqoqwa nokukhiqizwa kwerabha. Muva nje, kunemvula eningi endaweni yokukhiqiza yaseHainan, futhi izinga lokushisa lehlile, kunethuba elithile lokusikwa kusenesikhathi, isidingo sasekhaya sesikhashana sokunaka nokulandela ukukhiqizwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa endaweni yokukhiqiza.

Kuleli sonto, izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamandla ezinkampanini zamasampula amathayi ensimbi e-China belingu-78.88%, +0.19% inyanga nenyanga kanye +11.18% unyaka nonyaka. Kuleli sonto, izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamandla ezinkampanini zamasampula amathayi ensimbi e-China belingu-63.89%, 0.32% inyanga nenyanga kanye +0.74% unyaka nonyaka. Ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kwamabhizinisi amasampula amathayi ensimbi e-semi-steel kwehle kancane, kanti uhlu lwemikhiqizo eqediwe lukhuphuke kancane. Uhlu lwamabhizinisi wonke amasampula amathayi ensimbi luqhubeke nokukhula, futhi ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokuthengisa, izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamandla ezinkampani ngazinye ezivela ezinkampanini ezinkulu zamasampula okukhiqiza okulawulayo laliphansi kancane.

Bheka ngaphakathi komkhathi kuyashisa

Kusukela ngoNovemba 16 kuya kuNovemba 23, 2023, isilinganiso "se-bullish", "bearish" kanye "nozinzo" ocwaningweni lwezitayela sasingu-42.0%, 25.9% kanye no-42.0%, ngokulandelana. Ngokombono wokuqapha isimo sengqondo semakethe kuleli sonto, ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka, izindawo zokukhiqiza zasekhaya sezizoyeka ukuncipha ekupheleni kwenyanga, futhi kunezindaba zokunciphisa umkhiqizo ezindaweni ezinkulu zokukhiqiza njengeThailand neVietnam ezindaweni zokukhiqiza zakwamanye amazwe, okwenza amanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa aqine kakhulu; Umkhawulo wokukhiqiza kanye nokuthengisa wamabhizinisi amathayi aphansi ekugcineni kwesidingo uyehla; Ekupheleni kwesitoko, isitoko saseQingdao saqhubeka nokwehla, iglue emnyama yaqhubeka nokuya endaweni yokugcina, futhi iglue enombala okhanyayo yaqala ukuqongelela isitoko; Isimo samanje se-macro sifudumele, kodwa ukuwa okuphelele noma okuphezulu esikhathini esizayo kungase kube yisizathu esiyinhloko sokubikezela isimo sengqondo nokuzinza kwemakethe yerabha yemvelo.

Kulindeleke ukuthi kusenesikhala senzuzo yesikhashana

Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe yerabha yemvelo yesikhashana isenendawo yokwenyuka okuncane. Imakethe isiqaphele ukukhathazeka ngenani lezinto zokusetshenziswa endaweni yokukhiqiza yaseThailand yangaphambilini, futhi indawo yokukhiqiza yasekhaya isizongena esikhathini sokuyeka, isitokwe esincane sezinto zokusetshenziswa efektri, inzuzo enganele yokucubungula okukhuphukayo kusenengcindezi enanini lokukhiqizwa kwerabha, kanti isitokwe se-Qidao esibekwe phezulu siyaqhubeka nokuya endaweni yokugcina impahla, futhi intengo yerabha isenendawo yokukhuphuka. Uhlangothi lwesidingo lwangena kancane kancane esikhathini sokuphumula ekupheleni konyaka, isidingo sokufaka esikhundleni sokugcina sibuthakathaka, isitokwe semikhiqizo eqediwe yamabhizinisi saphela, ukwakhiwa kwamabhizinisi kwakusalindeleke ukuthi kubuthakathaka, intshiseko yokugcwaliswa kabusha kwezinto zokusetshenziswa yacindezelwa, futhi ukunyuka kwemakethe yendawo kwakulinganiselwe. Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo yendawo ye-latex ephelele emakethe yaseShanghai ngesonto elizayo izosebenza ngaphakathi kwebanga eliphakathi kuka-13100-13350 yuan/ton; Intengo yendawo yaseThailand isebenza phakathi kuka-12300-12450 yuan/ton.