U-2023 usufike ekupheleni konyaka, uma sibheka emuva kulo nyaka, imakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe yamazwe ngamazwe ekuncishisweni kokukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+ kanye nokuphazamiseka kwezwe kungachazwa njengokungalindeleki, ukwehla nokwenyuka.

1. Ukuhlaziywa kwentengo yemakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe yamazwe ngamazwe ngo-2023

Kulo nyaka, uwoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe (i-Brent futures) usuwonke ukhombise ukwehla, kodwa isikhungo samanani adonsela phansi sishintshe kakhulu. Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 31, intengo emaphakathi yekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent ka-2023 yayingamadola angama-82.66 aseMelika/umphongolo, yehle ngo-16.58% enanini eliyisilinganiso sonyaka odlule. Ukuthambekela kwamanani entengo kawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni wonke kulo nyaka kukhombisa izici "zesikhungo sokudonsela phansi sehlile, esasiphansi sabe sesiphezulu", futhi izingcindezi zezomnotho ezahlukahlukene ezifana nenkinga yamabhange eYurophu nase-United States ziye zavela ngaphansi kwesizinda. yokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, okuholele ekwehleni kwamanani kawoyela, ehle aze afike ku-16%. Ngemuva kokungena engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ngenxa yokwesekwa kwamazwe amaningi akhiqiza uwoyela njengokuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+, izisekelo zaqala ukugqamisa, ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+ kudlule imiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-2.6/ngosuku, okulingana no-2.7% wokukhiqizwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni wonke. , okwenza amanani kawoyela anyuke cishe ngo-20%, ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent liphinde labuyela ebangeni eliphezulu elingaphezu kwama-$80 / umphongolo.

Ibanga le-Brent lango-2023 lingu-$71.84- $96.55 / BBL, elinephuzu eliphakeme kakhulu lenzeka ngo-Septhemba 27 futhi eliphansi kakhulu ngo-June 12. $70- $90 umphongolo yibanga elivamile lokusebenza le-Brent crude oil futures ngo-2023. Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 31, i-WTI kanye nekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent lehle ngo-$12.66 / umgqomo kanye no-$9.14 / umgqomo ngokulandelana ukusuka kokuphezulu konyaka.

Ngemva kokungena ngo-Okthoba, ngenxa yokugqashuka kwengxabano yasePalestina-Israel, amanani entengo kawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni wonke akhuphuka kakhulu ngaphansi kweprimiyamu yengozi ye-geopolitical, kodwa ngokungqubuzana okungaphazamisi ukukhiqizwa kwamazwe amakhulu akhiqiza uwoyela, izingozi zokuhlinzeka ziba buthaka, kanye ne-OPEC kanye ne-United States. States anda ukukhiqizwa kawoyela ongahluziwe, amanani kawoyela wehla ngokushesha. Ngokuqondile, ukungqubuzana kwaqubuka ngo-Okthoba 7, futhi kusukela ngo-Okthoba 19, ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent lenyuka ngo-$4.23 / umphongolo. Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 31, ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent lalingu-$87.41 / umphongolo, lehle ngo-$4.97 / umgqomo kusukela ngo-Okthoba 19, lisula zonke izinzuzo kusukela ngengxabano yase-Israel-Palestine.

Ii. Ukuhlaziywa kwezinto eziphambili ezinomthelela emakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe yamazwe ngamazwe ngo-2023

Ngo-2023, womabili amathonya ezomnotho kanye ne-geopolitical amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe anyukile. Umthelela we-macroeconomic ku-oyela ongahluziwe ugxile kakhulu ohlangothini lwesidingo. Ngo-March kulo nyaka, inkinga yamabhange eYurophu nase-United States yaqhuma, amazwi oklebe e-Federal Reserve yethulwa ngokujulile ngo-April, ingozi yokuqothuka kwezikweletu e-United States yafakwa ngaphansi kwengcindezi ngoMeyi, kanye nesithakazelo esikhulu. isimo sezinga lesilinganiso esidalwe ukwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo ngo-June sabeka isisindo somnotho, futhi ubuthakathaka nomuzwa ophansi ezingeni lomnotho kwacindezela ngokuqondile intengo kawoyela yamazwe ngamazwe kusukela ngoMashi kuya kuJuni. Sekuphinde kwaba yisici esibi esiyinhloko sokuthi amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe angeke akhuphuke engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka. Ngokwemibandela ye-geopolitical, ukuqubuka kwengxabano yakwa-Israyeli-Palestine ngo-Okthoba 7, ingozi ye-geopolitical yaphinde yaqina, futhi intengo kawoyela yamazwe ngamazwe yabuyela endaweni ephakeme eseduze ne-$ 90 / umgqomo ngaphansi kokusekelwa kwalokhu, kodwa ngemakethe uphinde uhlole okwangempela. umthelela walesi senzakalo, ukukhathazeka mayelana nezingozi zokunikezwa kwempahla kwehlile, futhi amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ehla.

Njengamanje, ngokwezici eziyinhloko ezithonyayo, kungafingqwa njengezici ezilandelayo: kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ukungqubuzana kwe-Israel-Palestine kuzothinta ukukhishwa kwabakhiqizi abakhulu bamafutha, ukunwetshwa kokukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC + ukusika kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka, ukuphumula. of unswinyo olubhekiswe eVenezuela yi-United States, ukunyuka kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe wase-US kuze kufike endaweni ephakeme kakhulu ngonyaka, inqubekela phambili yokwehla kwamandla emali eYurophu nase-United States, ukusebenza kwangempela kwesidingo sase-Asia, ukwanda kokukhiqizwa kwe-Iranian kanye noshintsho. emuzweni womhwebi.

Yimuphi umqondo obangela ukuntengantenga kwemakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe yamazwe ngamazwe ngo-2023? Ngaphansi kokuphazamiseka kwezwe, ithini isiqondiso semakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe ngokulandelayo? Ngomhla zi-3 Novemba, 15:00-15:45, i-Longzhong Information izokwethula ukusakazwa bukhoma kwemakethe yonyaka ngo-2023, okuzokunikeza incazelo eningiliziwe yentengo kawoyela, izindawo ezishisayo ze-macroeconomic, ukunikezwa kanye nokufunwa okuyisisekelo kanye nentengo kawoyela yesikhathi esizayo. izibikezelo, bikezela isimo semakethe ngo-2024 kusengaphambili, futhi usize ukuzulazula ukuhlela kwebhizinisi!