Unyaka ka-2023 usufike ekupheleni konyaka, uma sibheka emuva kulo nyaka, imakethe yamafutha angahluziwe yamazwe ngamazwe ekunciphiseni ukukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+ kanye nokuphazamiseka kwezepolitiki kungachazwa njengokungalindelekile, ukwenyuka nokwehla.

1. Ukuhlaziywa kwentengo yemakethe yamafutha angcolile emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023

Kulo nyaka, uwoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe (i-Brent futures) iyonke ibonise ukwehla, kodwa isikhungo sentengo yamandla adonsela phansi sishintshe kakhulu. Kusukela ngomhlaka-31 Okthoba, intengo emaphakathi yesikhathi esizayo sikawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent ka-2023 yayingu-82.66 amadola ase-US/umgqomo, wehle ngo-16.58% kusukela entengo emaphakathi ngonyaka odlule. Umkhuba wamanani kawoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe kulo nyaka ukhombisa izici "zesikhungo samandla adonsela phansi sehle, esasiphansi bese siphezulu", kanye nezingcindezi zomnotho ezahlukahlukene njengenkinga yamabhange eYurophu nase-United States ziye zavela ngaphansi kwesizinda sokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, okuholele ekwehleni kwamanani kawoyela, wehle ngamaphesenti angu-16. Ngemva kokungena engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ngenxa yokusekelwa kwamazwe amaningi akhiqiza uwoyela njengokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+, izisekelo zaqala ukugqama, ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+ kudlule imiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-2.6 ngosuku, okulingana no-2.7% wokukhiqizwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni wonke, okwenza amanani kawoyela akhuphuke cishe ngo-20%, i-Brent crude oil futures iphinde yabuyela ebangeni eliphezulu ngaphezu kuka-$80 ngebharele.

Uhla lwe-Brent lwango-2023 luyi-$71.84-$96.55 / BBL, kanti iphuzu eliphakeme kakhulu livela ngoSepthemba 27 kanti eliphansi kakhulu livela ngoJuni 12. $70-$90 ngebhareli yilona hlu olujwayelekile lokusebenza lwekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent ngo-2023. Kusukela ngomhlaka-31 Okthoba, ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-WTI kanye ne-Brent lehle ngo-$12.66 ngebhareli kanye no-$9.14 ngebhareli ngokulandelana kusukela phezulu konyaka.

Ngemva kokungena ngo-Okthoba, ngenxa yokuqubuka kwengxabano phakathi kwePalestina ne-Israel, amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni wonke akhuphuke kakhulu ngaphansi kwe-geopolitical risk premium, kodwa njengoba ingxabano ingathinti umkhiqizo wamazwe amakhulu akhiqiza uwoyela, izingozi zokuhlinzeka zibuthakathaka, kanye ne-OPEC kanye ne-United States bandise ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe, amanani kawoyela ehla ngokushesha. Ngokukhethekile, ingxabano yaqala ngo-Okthoba 7, kwathi ngo-Okthoba 19, amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe eBrent akhuphuka ngo-$4.23 / umphongolo. Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 31, amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe eBrent ayengu-$87.41 / umphongolo, ehle ngo-$4.97 / umphongolo kusukela ngo-Okthoba 19, esula yonke inzuzo kusukela empini yase-Israel nePalestina.

II. Ukuhlaziywa kwezici eziyinhloko ezithonya imakethe yamafutha angahluziwe emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023

Ngo-2023, kokubili ithonya lezomnotho kanye nelezepolitiki emananini kawoyela ongahluziwe liye landa. Umthelela wezomnotho omkhulu ku-oyela ongahluziwe ugxile kakhulu ohlangothini lokufunwa. NgoMashi kulo nyaka, inkinga yamabhange eYurophu nase-United States yaqhuma, amazwi e-hawkish e-Federal Reserve afakwa ngamandla ngo-Ephreli, ingozi yomkhawulo wesikweletu e-United States yafakwa ngaphansi kwengcindezi ngoMeyi, kanti isimo senzalo ephezulu esibangelwe ukwenyuka kwenzalo ngoJuni kwacindezela umnotho, kanye nobuthakathaka kanye nomuzwa wokwehla ezingeni lomnotho kwacindezela ngqo intengo kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe kusukela ngoMashi kuya kuJuni. Kubuye kwaba yinto engemihle eyinhloko yokuthi amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe awakwazi ukukhuphuka engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka. Ngokwesimo sezombusazwe, ukuqubuka kwengxabano phakathi kwe-Israel nePalestina ngo-Okthoba 7, ingozi yezombusazwe iphinde yanda, futhi intengo kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe yabuyela endaweni ephezulu ecishe ibe ngu-$90 / ibhareli ngaphansi kokusekelwa kwalokhu, kodwa ngemakethe iphinda ihlole umthelela wangempela walesi sigameko, ukukhathazeka ngezingozi zokuhlinzekwa kwehle, futhi amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ehla.

Njengamanje, ngokwezinto eziyinhloko ezithonyayo, kungafingqwa njengezici ezilandelayo: ukuthi ngabe ingxabano phakathi kwe-Israel nePalestina izothinta yini umkhiqizo wabakhiqizi abakhulu bamafutha, ukwelulwa kokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+ kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka, ukuxegiswa kwezijeziso ezibhekiswe eVenezuela yi-United States, ukwenyuka kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe wase-US kuze kube sezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu ngonyaka, intuthuko yokwehla kwamandla emali eYurophu nase-United States, ukusebenza kwangempela kwesidingo sase-Asia, ukwanda kokukhiqizwa kwe-Iran kanye noshintsho emizweni yabahwebi.

Iyini inhloso ngemuva kokuguquguquka kwemakethe yamafutha angahluziwe yamazwe ngamazwe ngo-2023? Ngaphansi kokuphazamiseka kwezepolitiki, imakethe yamafutha angahluziwe izoqondiswa kuphi ngokulandelayo? Ngomhlaka-3 Novemba, 15:00-15:45, i-Longzhong Information izokwethula ukusakaza bukhoma kwemakethe yaminyaka yonke ngo-2023, okuzokunikeza incazelo eningiliziwe yentengo kawoyela, izindawo ezishisayo kwezomnotho, izisekelo zokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo kanye nezibikezelo zentengo kawoyela zesikhathi esizayo, ibikezele isimo semakethe ngo-2024 kusengaphambili, futhi isize ekuhleleni kwenkampani!