Njengoba uwoyela ongahluziwe uvaleke phezulu ngobusuku obubodwa, amanani kaphethiloli wasekhaya nodizili aphinde avula umzuliswano omusha wokwenyuka, ntambama kwezinye izindawo, uphiko oluyinhloko lukaphethiloli nodizili lunezilungiso ezimbili noma ezintathu ezizonyuka, futhi udizili waqala ukukhuphuka. isu lokuthengisa elilinganiselwe. Muva nje, isidingo sikaphethiloli sesekwe wukwenyuka kwesibalo sohambo lwasehlobo kanye nowoyela we-air conditioning, kodwa udizili usaqhubeka nokunethwa yimvula eNyakatho naseNingizimu, kanti nesidingo asikathuthuki kakhulu.

Ngokusho kokuqapha idatha ye-Longzhong, kusukela kulawa matafula amabili angenhla, ekuqaleni kuka-August kulo nyaka, amanani kaphethiloli wasekhaya kanye nodizili akhuphuka kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi, uphethiloli wenyuka phakathi kuka-45-367 yuan/ton, iShandong inokwenyuka okuncane kakhulu; Ukwenyuka kukadizili ezindaweni ezehlukene kungu-713-946 yuan/ton, futhi ukwanda kukhulu kuzo zonke izindawo, futhi ukwanda kukadizili kukhulu kunokaphethiloli.

Ngemuva kwemijikelezo eminingana yokusunduza phezulu, izizathu ezithile cishe zilandelayo:

1. Ukukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni jikelele

Kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi kuya ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, iSaudi Arabia neRussia badedele okunye ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa, futhi inani eliphakeme lokusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli e-United States nase-Asia kulindeleke ukuthi libe ngcono, kanye nokwehla kwezinga lokukhiqizwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe. I-United States isekelwa izindaba ezinhle, futhi amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni wonke aye enyuka enyuka. Kusukela ngo-Agasti 3, i-Brent ivale ku-$85.14 / BBL, ikhuphuke ngo-$10.49 / BBL noma ngo-14.05% kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi.

2.inzuzo yasekhaya kaphethiloli kanye nedizili yokuthekelisa iphezulu

Ngokusho kokuqapha kwedatha ye-Longzhong, ukuthatha ichweba laseNingizimu China njengesibonelo, kusukela maphakathi noJuni kulo nyaka, iwindi le-arbitrage lasekhaya likaphethiloli nodizili selivulwe ngokulandelana. Kusukela ngo-Agasti 3, inzuzo yokuthunyelwa kukaphethiloli waseShayina eSingapore yayingu-183 yuan/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-322.48% kusukela maphakathi noJuni; Inzuzo yokuthekelisa udizili ibingu-708 yuan/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-319.08% kusukela maphakathi noJuni.

Ngokukhula kwenzuzo yokuthekelisa kaphethiloli wasekhaya kanye nodizili, imakethe kulindeleke ukuthi ithumele kwamanye amazwe okunye okunye, kanti amanye amayunithi amakhulu ngoJulayi azovulwa, ekuqaleni kukaJulayi, amanye ayinhloko e-East China 92# amanani kaphethiloli angama-8380 yuan/ton. , kuya ku-August 3, intengo ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-8700 yuan/ton, ukwanda kwe-320 yuan/ton noma 3.82%; Intengo kadizili othengwa kwamanye amazwe inyuke isuka ku-6,860 yuan/ton yaya ku-7,750 yuan/ton, nokukhuphuka ngo-890 yuan/ton noma ngo-12.97%. Lapho amayunithi amakhulu eqala ukuqoqa umusi nodizili, abanye abathengisi balandela ngempela, intengo yevolumu eyodwa kaphethiloli nodizili yenyuka, ngisho nentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe yehla ngezikhathi ezithile, kodwa intengo kaphethiloli nodizili yenyuka esikhundleni sikawoyela ongahluziwe. ukuwa.

3, opharetha bemakethe banake izabelo zokuthekelisa

Kuze kube manje, uMnyango Wezohwebo waseChina ukhiphe amaqoqo amabili ezabelo zikawoyela ocolisisiwe zokuthekelisa kulo nyaka, ezihlanganisa amathani ayizigidi ezingama-27.99. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJuni, ivolumu yokuthumela ngaphandle kwemikhiqizo kawoyela ocolisisiwe eChina yayingamathani ayizigidi ezingama-20.3883. Uma imikhiqizo kawoyela ocolisisiwe engenisiwe ngaphansi kokuqondisa okuboshelwe phesheya kwezilwandle isusiwe, umthamo wangempela wokuthekelisa wawungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-20.2729, izinga lokuqedwa kwesabelo sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lalingu-72.43%, futhi bekunamathani angu-7.717,100 wezabelo zokuthekelisa okufanele ziqedwe. Ngokusho kolwazi lwe-Longzhong olufundwe emakethe, umthamo ohleliwe wokuthekelisa wemikhiqizo kawoyela ocolisisiwe waseChina ngoJulayi nango-Agasti ungamathani ayizigidi eziyi-7.02, uma lezi zibalo zingathunyelwa ngaphandle, isilinganiso sokuthekelisa semikhiqizo kawoyela ocolisisiwe yaseChina ngoJanuwari no-Agasti singama-97.88%, futhi isilinganiso samaqoqo amabili sisetshenziswa ngokuphelele. Njengamanje, ukuthengiswa kwasekhaya kukaphethiloli kanye nodizili kunenzuzo, iqoqwana lesithathu lezabelo zokuthekelisa kulindeleke ukuthi likhishwe maphakathi nale nyanga, akusho ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi ezinye izinhlangano ezithumela ngaphandle zingeze uphethiloli nodizili kwamanye amazwe.

4, amandla okulungisa asekhaya ancishisiwe, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kuye kwaphindeka, kodwa umthelela wokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo emakethe sehlile.

Ngo-Agasti, isikali esikhulu saseChina sokulungisa indawo yokuhlanza saqhubeka nokwehla, ngokusho kwezibalo zolwazi lweLongzhong, ngo-Agasti kuphela ukucwengisiswa kwe-Daqing namakhemikhali kanye neLanzhou Petrochemical ukunakekelwa okuyinhloko kokucwenga, okubandakanya umthamo wokulungisa noma amathani ayi-700,000, ngaphansi kukaJulayi amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.4, ukwehla 66%. Ngokwezilinganiso zedatha, isamba sesivuno sikawoyela sezindawo ezihluzwayo eziyinhloko ngo-August kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke siye ku-61.3%, sikhuphuke ngo-0.75% kusukela enyangeni edlule. Isilinganiso siqhubekile nokwehla sibuyela ku-1.02. Isivuno sikaphethiloli kanye nophethiloli wejet senyuke izinyanga ezinhlanu zilandelana, futhi isivuno sikawoyela wedizili sehla izinyanga ezintathu zilandelana. Ngakho-ke, kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhishwa okuhleliwe kwe-steam, idizili namalahle endaweni yokucwenga eyinhloko ngo-Agasti kungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-11.02, amathani ayizigidi ezingu-11.27 namathani ayizigidi ezingu-5.01, ngokulandelana, okuyi-+4.39%, -0.68% no-7.92%.

Ngo-Agasti, umthamo wokugcinwa kwezindawo zokuhlanza ezizimele awuzange ushintshe kakhulu, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi uhlanganise amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.27 womthamo wokulungisa, okuwukunyuka kwamathani angu-50,000 kusukela ngoJulayi, okukhuphuke ngo-2.25%. Ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthi izindawo zokuhluza ezilungiswe kabusha ngoJulayi, njengeXintai Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye nezinye izindawo zokuhluza, kanye neLanqiao Petrochemical, Wudi Xinyue, Dalian Jinyuan, Xinhai Shihua, njll. zizovulwa ngokulandelana ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, okuzolungiswa. amandla okulungiswa kabusha kwemboni ye-Baolai Petrochemical ngo-August. Sekukonke, ukukhiqizwa kwamafutha ahlanzekile asekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi kwande ngo-Agasti, phakathi kwawo, ukukhiqizwa kukaphethiloli kwanda inyanga nenyanga, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwedizili akulindelekile ukuthi kushintshe kakhulu.

Sekukonke, amanani entengo kaphethiloli wasekhaya kanye nodizili aqhubekile nokukhuphuka, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela ongahluziwe, inzuzo ephezulu yokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe, imakethe kulindeleke ukuthi inyuse umthamo wokuthekelisa, futhi kuyeza “igolide eliyisishagalolunye isiliva eliyishumi”, imakethe kufanele yenze imisebenzi yokusungula kusenesikhathi, futhi amanani entengo kadizili asekuqaleni aphansi, futhi umdlandla wokusebenza kwemakethe uphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa nophethiloli. Amanani okuthengisa kulindeleke ukuthi anyuke ngesonto elizayo, kanti izindaba zikawoyela ongahluziwe zisasekelwa ngokuqinile, kulindeleke ukuthi njengoba kukhishwe isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle, imakethe kaphethiloli nodizili ingase iqhubeke nokukhuphuka.