Njengoba uwoyela ongahluziwe uvala phezulu ngobusuku obubodwa, amanani kaphethiloli kanye nedizili yasekhaya aphinde avula umjikelezo omusha wokwenyuka, ntambama kwezinye izindawo, iyunithi eyinhloko kaphethiloli kanye nedizili inezinguquko ezimbili noma ezintathu okufanele zikhuphuke, futhi udizili waqala ukuba nesu lokuthengisa elilinganiselwe. Muva nje, isidingo sikaphethiloli sisekelwe ukwanda kwenani lohambo lwasehlobo kanye nowoyela womoya opholile, kodwa udizili uqhubekile nokuba ngaphansi kwemvula eNyakatho naseNingizimu, futhi isidingo asikathuthuki kakhulu.

Ngokusho kokuqapha idatha kweLongzhong, kusukela ematafuleni amabili angenhla, ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti kulo nyaka, amanani kaphethiloli kanye nedizili asekhaya akhuphuke kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi, uphethiloli ukhuphuke phakathi kwama-yuan angu-45-367/ton, iShandong inokwenyuka okuncane kakhulu; Ukwenyuka kukadizili ezindaweni ezahlukene kungu-713-946 yuan/ton, kanti ukwenyuka kukhulu kuzo zonke izindawo, kanti ukwenyuka kukadizili kukhulu kunokwephethiloli.

Ngemva kwezikhathi eziningana zokusunduza phezulu, izizathu ezithile cishe ziyizilandelayo:

1. Ukwenyuka kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni jikelele

Kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi kuya ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, iSaudi Arabia neRussia bakhiphe okunye ukwehla kokukhiqiza, futhi izinga eliphezulu lokusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli e-United States kanye namathuba ezomnotho ase-Asia kulindeleke ukuthi libe ngcono, futhi ukwehla kwezitoko zikawoyela ongahluziwe wezentengiselwano e-United States kusekelwa yizindaba ezinhle, futhi amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni wonke akhuphuke kakhulu. Kusukela ngomhlaka-3 Agasti, iBrent ivale ku-$85.14 / BBL, ikhuphuke ngo-$10.49 / BBL noma ngo-14.05% kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi.

2. Inzuzo yokuthumela uphethiloli kanye nedizili yasekhaya iphezulu

Ngokusho kokuqapha idatha kweLongzhong, uma sibheka ichweba laseNingizimu China njengesibonelo, kusukela maphakathi kuya ekupheleni kukaJuni kulo nyaka, ifasitela le-arbitrage lokuthumela uphethiloli kanye nedizili lasekhaya livuliwe ngokulandelana. Kusukela ngomhlaka-3 Agasti, inzuzo yokuthunyelwa kukaphethiloli eShayina eSingapore yayingu-183 yuan/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-322.48% kusukela maphakathi noJuni; inzuzo yokuthunyelwa kukadizili yayingu-708 yuan/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-319.08% kusukela maphakathi noJuni.

Njengoba inzuzo yokuthumela uphethiloli kanye nedizili yasekhaya ikhuphuka, kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe ithumele kwamanye amazwe ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, kanti amanye amayunithi amakhulu ngoJulayi azovulwa, ekuqaleni kukaJulayi, amanye amayunithi amakhulu eMpumalanga China angu-92# amanani kaphethiloli angu-8380 yuan/ton, kuze kube ngu-Agasti 3, intengo ikhuphuke yaya ku-8700 yuan/ton, ukwanda kwama-yuan angu-320/ton noma u-3.82%; Intengo kaphethiloli engenisiwe ikhuphuke isuka ku-6,860 yuan/ton yaya ku-7,750 yuan/ton, ukwanda kwama-yuan angu-890/ton noma u-12.97%. Njengoba amayunithi amakhulu eqala ukuqoqa umusi kanye nedizili, abanye abameli balandela, intengo eyodwa yemikhumbi kaphethiloli kanye nedizili yakhuphuka, ngisho nentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe yehla kwezinye izikhathi, kodwa intengo kaphethiloli kanye nedizili yakhuphuka esikhundleni sokuwa.

3, opharetha bemakethe banaka izabelo zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe

Kuze kube manje, uMnyango Wezohwebo waseShayina ukhiphe amaqoqo amabili ezabelo zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe zikawoyela ocwengekile kulo nyaka, ezibalelwa ku-27.99 million tons. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJuni, inani elihlanganisiwe lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lemikhiqizo kawoyela ocwengekile eShayina lalingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-20.3883. Uma imikhiqizo kawoyela ocwengekile engenisiwe ngaphansi kokubhekwa kwezibopho zaphesheya kwezilwandle ingasuswa, inani langempela lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lalingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-20.2729, izinga lokuqedwa kwesabelo sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lalingama-72.43%, futhi kwakunamathani angu-7.717,100 ezabelo zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okwakumelwe ziqedwe. Ngokusho kolwazi lwaseLongzhong olutholwe emakethe, inani elihleliwe lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lemikhiqizo kawoyela ocwengekile waseShayina ngoJulayi nango-Agasti lingu-7.02 million tons, uma la manani engathunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lemikhiqizo kawoyela ocwengekile waseShayina ngoJanuwari nango-Agasti lingu-97.88%, kanti inani lamaqoqo amabili seliphelile. Njengamanje, ukuthunyelwa kwephethiloli kanye nedizili ngaphakathi ezweni kunenzuzo, iqembu lesithathu lezilinganiso zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kulindeleke ukuthi likhishwe maphakathi nale nyanga, akukuchithi ithuba lokuthi ezinye izinhlangano ezithumela kwamanye amazwe zengeze ukuthunyelwa kwephethiloli kanye nedizili.

4, amandla okulungisa asekhaya anciphile, futhi ukunikezwa kuphinde kwanda, kodwa umthelela wokunikezwa kanye nesidingo emakethe uye waba buthakathaka.

Ngo-Agasti, isikali sokulungiswa kwezindawo zokuhluza eziphambili zaseShayina saqhubeka nokwehla, ngokusho kwezibalo zolwazi zaseLongzhong, ngo-Agasti ukulungiswa kwezindawo zokuhluza eziphambili zaseDaqing kanye namakhemikhali kanye neLanzhou Petrochemical kuphela, okubandakanya umthamo wokulungisa noma amathani angu-700,000, ngaphansi kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.4 kuJulayi, ukwehla kwama-66%. Ngokusho kwezilinganiso zedatha, isivuno samafutha esiphelele sezindawo zokuhluza eziphambili ngo-Agasti kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphukele kuma-61.3%, sikhuphuke ngo-0.75% kusukela enyangeni edlule. Isilinganiso saqhubeka nokwehla sibuyele ku-1.02. Isivuno sikaphethiloli kanye nophethiloli wejethi sanda izinyanga ezinhlanu zilandelana, kanti isivuno sikaphethiloli wedizili sehle izinyanga ezintathu zilandelana. Ngakho-ke, kulindeleke ukuthi umkhiqizo ohleliwe we-steam, udizili kanye namalahle endaweni yokuhluza enkulu ngo-Agasti ube amathani ayizigidi ezingu-11.02, amathani ayizigidi ezingu-11.27 kanye namathani ayizigidi ezingu-5.01, ngokulandelana, okungu-+4.39%, -0.68% kanye no-+7.92%.

Ngo-Agasti, amandla okugcina izindawo zokuhluza ezizimele awashintshanga kakhulu, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kuhilele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.27 amandla okugcina, ukwanda kwamathani angu-50,000 kusukela ngoJulayi, ukwanda kwama-2.25%. Ikakhulukazi ngoba izindawo zokuhluza ezivuselelwe ngoJulayi, njenge-Xintai Petrochemical, i-Yatong Petrochemical, i-Panjin Haoye nezinye izindawo zokuhluza, kanye ne-Lanqiao Petrochemical, i-Wudi Xinyue, i-Dalian Jinyuan, i-Xinhai Shihua, njll. zizovulwa ngokulandelana ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, okuzonciphisa amandla okulungisa isitshalo se-Baolai Petrochemical ngo-Agasti. Sekukonke, ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela ocwengekile wasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi kwande ngo-Agasti, phakathi kwawo, ukukhiqizwa kukaphethiloli kwanda inyanga nenyanga, futhi ukukhiqizwa kukadizili akulindelekile ukuthi kushintshe kakhulu.

Sekukonke, amanani kaphethiloli kanye nedizili asekhaya aqhubekile nokwenyuka, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani kaphethiloli ongahluziwe, inzuzo ephezulu yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, imakethe kulindeleke ukuthi inyuse ivolumu yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, futhi "igolide nesiliva leshumi elinesishiyagalolunye" liyeza, imakethe kufanele yenze imisebenzi yokubeka izinto kusengaphambili, futhi amanani kaphethiloli okuqala aphansi kakhulu, futhi intshiseko yokusebenza kwemakethe iphezulu kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nophethiloli. Amanani okuthengisa kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke ngesonto elizayo, futhi izindaba zikaphethiloli ongahluziwe zisasekelwa kakhulu, kulindeleke ukuthi njengoba kukhishwe isabelo sokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, imakethe kaphethiloli kanye nedizili ingase iqhubeke nokukhuphuka.