Ngomhla ziyi-17 kuNovemba 2020, isilinganiso esimaphakathi sezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB emakethe yokushintshiselana kwamanye amazwe yaba: Idola lase-US eli-1 laya ku-RMB 6.5762, okuwukunyuka kwamaphoyinti angu-286 kusukela osukwini lwangaphambilini lokuhweba, lafinyelela esikhathini samayuan angu-6.5. Ukwengeza, amanani okushintshanisa i-RMB yasogwini naphesheya kwezilwandle uma eqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika womabili akhuphukele ku-6.5 yuan enkathini.

Lo mlayezo awuthunyelwanga izolo ngoba amathuba angu-6.5 nawo angumuntu odlula ngendlela. Ngaphansi kwalolu bhubhane, umnotho waseChina uqinile, futhi kuqinisekile ukuthi i-RMB izoqhubeka nokuqina.

Dlulisela phambili amazwana avela kuchwepheshe:

Ingabe izinga lokushintshanisa i-RMB uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika lizokhuphuka lifinyelele enkathini engu-6.5?

Amazwi Omndeni

Kulindeleke ukuthi ukuthambekela kokwazisa kwe-RMB kungashintshi, kodwa izinga lokwazisa lizokwehla.

Ngokwezindaba ezikhishwe yi-China Foreign Exchange Trading Center: NgoNovemba 17, isilinganiso esimaphakathi sezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB emakethe yokushintshiselana ngamabhange aphakathi kwaba yidola laseMelika eli-1 kuya ku-RMB 6.5762, okuwukunyuka kwamaphoyinti angama-286 ukusuka kwedlule. usuku lokuhweba kuze kufike enkathini yama-yuan angu-6.5. Ukwengeza, amanani okushintshanisa i-RMB yasogwini naphesheya kwezilwandle uma eqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika womabili akhuphukele ku-6.5 yuan enkathini. Okulandelayo, ingabe izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB lizoqhubeka nokukhuphuka?

Izinga lokushintshisana kwe-renminbi likhuphuke lafinyelela ku-6.5 enkathini, futhi kufanele kube umcimbi ongenzeka kakhulu ukuze kugcinwe ithrendi ekhuphukayo esinyathelweni esilandelayo. Kunezizathu ezine.

Okokuqala, izinga lokumakethwa kwezinga lokushintshisana kwe-RMB liye lajula kancane kancane, futhi izici zokungenelela komuntu zomnyango wokuphatha wangaphandle webhange elikhulu ziye zaqedwa. Ekupheleni kuka-Okthoba walo nyaka, unobhala wezindlela zokuzikhuza ezimakethe zokushintshisana ngemali yangaphandle umemezele ukuthi ibhange lekhotheshini lezinga lesilinganiso esimaphakathi se-RMB uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika, ngokusekelwe ezahlulelweni zalo ezisekelweni zezomnotho nezimo zemakethe, uthathe isinyathelo sokuthatha isinyathelo sokulungisa “okuphambene” nemodeli yentengo elinganayo ye-RMB uma iqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika. I-Cycle factor” iyafiphala ukuze isetshenziswe. Lokhu kusho ukuthi isinyathelo esibucayi kakhulu sithathiwe ekukhangiseni izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB. Ngokuzayo, amathuba okuguquguquka okubili kuzinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB azokhuphuka. Ngokuyisisekelo ayikho imikhawulo yokwenziwa yokwazisa okuqhubekayo kwe-RMB. Lokhu kudala izimo ezivumayo zokwazisa okuqhubekayo kwe-RMB.

Okwesibili, iShayina empeleni iwuqedile umthelela omubi wobhubhane olusha lomqhele, futhi umfutho wayo wokuthuthukiswa komnotho usezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni. Kunalokho, ukusimama komnotho wamazwe ase-Europe naseMelika kuhamba kancane, ikakhulukazi isimo sase-United States sisenzima kakhulu, okwenza idola liqhubeke. Ihambisa phezulu esiteshini esibuthakathaka. Ngokusobala, ngenxa yokusekelwa okuyisisekelo kwezomnotho kwe-China, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB lizoqhubeka nokukhuphuka.

Okwesithathu, enye into ebambe iqhaza ekukhuphuleni izinga lokushintshisana kwe-renminbi uchungechunge oluhlelwe ngokuhlanganyela yiBhange Elikhulu kanye neKhomishana Yokuphathwa Kwezimpahla Zombuso ngoNovemba 12 enendikimba ethi “ukwenziwa lula kohwebo kanye ukutshalwa kwezimali ngamabhizinisi asebenzisa i-renminbi ngaphesheya kwemingcele”. Uchungechunge lwezimpawu ezinhle: Ibhange elikhulu lithe lihlanganise “Isaziso Sokuthuthukisa Izinqubomgomo Ze-RMB Eziwela Umngcele Zokusekela Ukuqiniswa Kwezohwebo Zangaphandle Nokutshalwa Kwezimali Zangaphandle” neKhomishana Yokuthuthukiswa Nezinguquko, Umnyango Wezohwebo, kanye ne-SASAC. Amadokhumenti epholisi azokhishwa maduze. Lokhu kusho ukuthi imakethe yezezimali yezwe lami izophinde ivulelwe amazwe angaphandle, futhi imakethe ye-RMB engaphesheya nayo izothuthukiswa ngamandla. Izophinde ikhuthaze ukuvulwa kwemakethe yezezimali ye-RMB yasogwini futhi ikhulise amandla kanye nokujula kwemakethe yezezimali ye-RMB yaphesheya kwezilwandle. Ikakhulukazi, izoqhubeka nokunamathela ezinqumweni eziqhutshwa yimakethe nezizimele zamabhizinisi, iqhubeke nokwenza kahle isimo senqubomgomo ukuze kusetshenziswe i-RMB emngceleni, futhi ithuthukise ukusebenza kahle kwe-RMB ewela umngcele kanye nokususwa kolwandle. Njengamanje, ngenxa yesidingo semakethe, ukusetshenziswa kwamazwe ngamazwe kwe-renminbi sekwenze inqubekelaphambili ebonakalayo. I-renminbi isivele iyimali yokukhokha yesibili ngobukhulu e-China. Amarisidi awela imingcele kanye nezinkokhelo ze-akhawunti ye-renminbi ngaphezu kwengxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yamarisidi nezinkokhelo eziwela imingcele zaseShayina ngezimali zasekhaya nezangaphandle. I-RMB isijoyine ubhasikidi wemali ye-SDR futhi isibe yimali ekhokhelwa amazwe ngamazwe yesihlanu ngobukhulu kanye nemali esemthethweni yokugcina imali yangaphandle.

Okwesine, futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, ngoNovemba 15, amazwe ayishumi e-ASEAN namazwe ayi-15 ahlanganisa i-China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, ne-New Zealand asayine ngokusemthethweni i-RCEP, okuphawula isiphetho esisemthethweni sesivumelwano sohwebo samahhala esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni. Lokhu ngeke nje kugqugquzele ukwakhiwa koMphakathi Wezomnotho wase-ASEAN, kodwa kuzophinde kwengeze umfutho omusha ekuthuthukisweni kwesifunda nokuchuma, futhi kuzoba injini ebalulekile yokukhula komhlaba. Ikakhulukazi, iShayina, njengezwe lesibili lomnotho ngobukhulu emhlabeni, ngokungangabazeki lizoba umnyombo we-RCEP, okuzoba nomthelela onamandla ekuhwebeni kwezomnotho nokuhwebelana kwamazwe e-RCEP futhi kuzuze amazwe abambe iqhaza. Ngaso leso sikhathi, iphinde ivumele i-RMB ukuthi idlale indima ebaluleke kakhulu ekuxazululeni izinkinga zohwebo kanye nokukhokhwa kwamazwe abambe iqhaza e-RCEP, okuzoletha izinzuzo eziningi ekukhuthazeni ukwanda kohwebo oluphelele lwe-China lokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle, luhehe amazwe e-RCEP ukuthi atshale imali. I-China, nokwandisa isidingo se-RMB evela emazweni e-RCEP. Lo mphumela uzophinde unikeze amandla athile enkambweni eqhubekayo ekhuphukayo yezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB.

Ngamafuphi, nakuba izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-renminbi selingene enkathini engu-6.5, uma kucatshangelwa amathuba ohwebo lokungenisa nokuthekelisa kanye nezici zenqubomgomo, sisekhona isikhala sokwazisa okulandelayo kwezinga lokushintshisana kwe-renminbi. Kulindeleke ukuthi inkambiso yokwazisa i-renminbi ingashintshi, kodwa izinga lokwazisa lizokwehla; ikakhulukazi ubhubhane lomhlaba wonke Ngokumelene nengemuva lokuphindaphindeka kanye nomuzwa wobungozi obunganqamuki, kulindeleke ukuthi i-RMB igcine ukuthambekela okuzinzile futhi okuqinile ngaphansi kokusekelwa kwezinzuzo zayo ezibalulekile.