Ngomhlaka-17 Novemba 2020, isilinganiso esiphakathi sezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB emakethe yokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe phakathi kwamabhange sasingu: idola laseMelika eli-1 laya ku-RMB 6.5762, ukwanda ngamaphuzu ayisisekelo angu-286 kusukela osukwini lokuhweba olwedlule, kwafinyelela enkathini yama-yuan angu-6.5. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amazinga okushintshaniswa kwe-RMB ogwini kanye nolwandle uma kuqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika womabili akhuphukele enkathini yama-yuan angu-6.5.

Lo mlayezo awuthunyelwanga izolo ngoba amathuba angu-6.5 nawo angowokudlula. Ngaphansi kwalesi sifo esiwumshayabhuqe, umnotho waseShayina uqinile, futhi kuqinisekile ukuthi i-RMB izoqhubeka nokuqina.

Dlulisa amazwana avela kuchwepheshe:

Ingabe izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika lizokhuphukela enkathini engu-6.5?

Amazwi Omndeni

Kulindeleke ukuthi umkhuba wokwanda kwe-RMB ngeke ushintshe, kodwa izinga lokwanda lizokwehla.

Ngokusho kwezindaba ezikhishwe yi-China Foreign Exchange Trading Center: NgoNovemba 17, isilinganiso esiphakathi sezinga lokushintshana kwe-RMB emakethe yokushintshana kwamanye amazwe phakathi kwamabhange sasiyidola elilodwa lase-US kuya ku-RMB 6.5762, ukwanda ngamaphuzu ayisisekelo angu-286 kusukela osukwini lokuhweba olwedlule kuya enkathini yama-yuan angu-6.5. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amazinga okushintshana kwe-RMB ogwini kanye nolwandle uma kuqhathaniswa nedola lase-US womabili akhuphukele enkathini yama-yuan angu-6.5. Okulandelayo, ingabe izinga lokushintshana kwe-RMB lizoqhubeka nokwenyuka?

Izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-renminbi likhuphuke lafika enkathini engu-6.5, futhi kufanele kube yinto engenzeka kakhulu ukugcina ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo esinyathelweni esilandelayo. Kunezizathu ezine.

Okokuqala, izinga lokumaketha kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB liye lajula kancane kancane, futhi izici zokungenelela kwabantu ngumnyango wokuphatha wangaphandle webhange eliphakathi ziye zasuswa. Ekupheleni kuka-Okthoba kulo nyaka, unobhala wendlela yokuzithiba yemakethe yokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle umemezele ukuthi ibhange lekhotheshini lesilinganiso esiphakathi se-RMB uma kuqhathaniswa nedola lase-US, ngokusekelwe ezinqumweni zalo eziyisisekelo zezomnotho kanye nezimo zemakethe, lithathe isinyathelo sokuthatha isinyathelo sokubhekana "nokuphambene" kumodeli yentengo ephakathi ye-RMB uma kuqhathaniswa nedola lase-US. Isici se-Cycle" siyaphela ukusetshenziswa. Lokhu kusho ukuthi isinyathelo esibaluleke kakhulu sithathiwe ekumaketheni izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB. Esikhathini esizayo, amathuba okushintshashintsha okubili kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB azokhula. Empeleni azikho izithiyo zokwenziwa zokwanda okuqhubekayo kwe-RMB. Lokhu kudala izimo ezinhle zokwanda okuqhubekayo kwe-RMB.

Okwesibili, iShayina isisuse umthelela omubi wobhubhane olusha lomqhele, futhi umfutho wayo wentuthuko yomnotho awufani nanoma ubani emhlabeni. Ngokuphambene nalokho, ukululama komnotho kwamazwe aseYurophu naseMelika kuhamba kancane, ikakhulukazi isimo e-United States sisalokhu sibi kakhulu, okwenza idola liqhubeke. Lihamba esiteshini esibuthakathaka. Ngokusobala, ngenxa yokusekelwa okuyisisekelo kwezomnotho kweShayina, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB lizoqhubeka likhuphuka.

Okwesithathu, esinye isici esidlale indima ekunyuseni izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-renminbi yingqungquthela ehlelwe ngokubambisana yiBhange Elikhulu kanye neKhomishini Yokuphatha Nokugadwa Kwezimpahla Eziphethwe Nguhulumeni ngoNovemba 12 ngesihloko esithi “ukwenziwa lula kokuhweba nokutshalwa kwezimali ngamabhizinisi asebenzisa i-renminbi ngaphesheya kwemingcele”. Uchungechunge lwezimpawu ezinhle: Ibhange eliphakathi lathi lihlanganise ndawonye “Isaziso Sokuthuthukisa Kakhulu Izinqubomgomo ze-RMB Eziwela Imingcele Ukusekela Ukuzinza Kokuhweba Kwangaphandle Nokutshalwa Kwezimali Kwangaphandle” neKhomishini Yentuthuko Nokuguqulwa, uMnyango Wezohwebo, kanye ne-SASAC. Imibhalo yenqubomgomo izokhishwa maduze. Lokhu kusho ukuthi imakethe yezezimali yezwe lami izovulelwa kakhulu emhlabeni wangaphandle, kanti imakethe ye-RMB ewela Imingcele nayo izothuthukiswa ngamandla. Izophinde ikhuthaze ukuvulwa kwemakethe yezezimali ye-RMB ewela Imingcele futhi yandise amandla kanye nokujula kwemakethe yezezimali ye-RMB ewela Imingcele. Ikakhulukazi, izoqhubeka nokunamathela ezinqumweni zamabhizinisi eziqhutshwa yimakethe nezizimele, iqhubeke nokwenza ngcono isimo senqubomgomo sokusetshenziswa kwe-RMB ngaphesheya kwemingcele, futhi ithuthukise ukusebenza kahle kwe-RMB ewela Imingcele kanye nokuhlanzwa ngaphesheya kwemingcele. Njengamanje, ngenxa yesidingo semakethe, ukusetshenziswa kwe-renminbi emhlabeni wonke kuye kwathuthuka kakhulu. I-renminbi kakade iyimali yesibili ngobukhulu yokukhokha eChina. Amarisidi nezinkokhelo ze-renminbi eziwela imingcele zibiza ngaphezu kwengxenye eyodwa kwezintathu zamarisidi nezinkokhelo zaseChina eziwela imingcele ngezimali zasekhaya nezakwamanye amazwe. I-RMB ijoyine ibhasikidi lemali ye-SDR futhi isibe yimali yokukhokha yesihlanu ngobukhulu emhlabeni kanye nemali esemthethweni yokugcina imali yangaphandle.

Okwesine, futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, ngoNovemba 15, amazwe ayishumi ase-ASEAN namazwe ayi-15 ahlanganisa iShayina, iJapan, iSouth Korea, i-Australia, neNew Zealand asayine ngokusemthethweni i-RCEP, okuwuphawu lokuphetha okusemthethweni kwesivumelwano sokuhweba esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni. Lokhu ngeke kukhuthaze kuphela ukwakhiwa kwe-ASEAN Economic Community, kodwa kuzophinde kwengeze umfutho omusha ekuthuthukisweni kwesifunda kanye nokuchuma, futhi kuzoba yinjini ebalulekile yokukhula komhlaba wonke. Ikakhulukazi, iShayina, njengomnotho wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni, ngokungangabazeki izoba yingqikithi ye-RCEP, ezoba nomthelela oqinile ekushintshisaneni kwezomnotho kanye nokuhweba kwamazwe e-RCEP futhi izuzise amazwe ahlanganyelayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, futhi kuvumela i-RMB ukuthi idlale indima ebaluleke kakhulu ekuxazululweni kwezohwebo kanye nokukhokhelwa kwamazwe ahlanganyelayo e-RCEP, okuzoletha izinzuzo eziningi ekukhuthazeni ukwanda kokuhweba okuphelele kokungenisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kweShayina, ukuheha amazwe e-RCEP ukuthi atshale imali eShayina, kanye nokwandisa isidingo se-RMB esivela emazweni e-RCEP. Lo mphumela uzophinde unikeze ukukhushulwa okuthile ekuqhubekeni kokukhuphuka kwezinga lokushintshana kwe-RMB.

Ngamafuphi, yize izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-renminbi selingene enkathini engu-6.5, uma kucatshangelwa amathuba okuhweba ngokungenisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kanye nezici zenqubomgomo, kusenendawo yokwanda okulandelayo kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-renminbi. Kulindeleke ukuthi ukuthambekela kokwanda kwe-renminbi ngeke kushintshe, kodwa izinga lokwanda lizokwehla; ikakhulukazi ubhubhane womhlaba wonke Ngokuphikisana nesimo sokubuyela emuva kanye nomuzwa wengozi onganciphi, kulindeleke ukuthi i-RMB izogcina ukuthambekela okuzinzile nokuqinile ngaphansi kokusekelwa kwezinzuzo zayo eziyisisekelo.