Nakuba ubhubhane olusha lomqhele ngo-2021 lusekhona, ukusetshenziswa kuyanda kancane kancane ngokufika kwentwasahlobo. Iqhutshwa ukubuya kukawoyela ongahluziwe, imakethe yamakhemikhali yasekhaya yaletha imakethe yezinkunzi. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imakethe ye-aniline nayo yaletha umzuzu oqhakazile. Kusukela ekupheleni kukaMashi, intengo yemakethe ye-aniline yafinyelela ku-13,500 yuan/ton, okuyizinga eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngo-2008.

Ngaphezu kohlangothi oluhle lwezindleko, ukunyuka kwemakethe ye-aniline kulokhu kusekelwa uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo. Ubuningi bokufakwa okusha bebungaphansi kwalokho obekulindelwe. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukufakwa okuyinhloko kwalungiswa, kanye nokwandiswa kwe-MDI engezansi, uhlangothi lwesidingo lwaluqinile, futhi imakethe ye-aniline yayikhuphuka. Ekupheleni kwekota, umuzwa wokuqagela wehla, iningi lezimpahla laphakama futhi idivayisi yokulungisa i-aniline yayisizoqala kabusha, futhi imakethe yaphenduka yawa, okulindeleke ukuthi ibuyele ekuqondeni.

Ekupheleni kuka-2020, umthamo wokukhiqiza i-aniline ezweni lami ucishe ube ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.38, okwenza u-44% wamandla okukhiqiza emhlabeni jikelele. Ukusabalala ngokweqile kwemboni ye-aniline, kanye nemikhawulo yezemvelo, kuye kwanciphisa ukuphakelwa eminyakeni emibili edlule. Ngeke kube khona ukwengezwa okusha ngo-2020, kodwa ngenxa yokukhula kwamandla okukhiqiza e-MDI, i-aniline izoletha okunye ukwanda ngo-2021. Isitshalo esisha saseJiangsu Fuqiang esingamathani ayi-100,000 saqala ukusebenza ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka, kanti isitshalo esisha saseYantai Wanhua esingamathani ayi-540,000 naso sihlelwe ukuthi siqale ukusebenza kulo nyaka. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, isitshalo saseFujian Wanhua esingamathani angu-360,000 sesiqalile ukwakhiwa futhi kuhlelwe ukuthi siqale ukusebenza ngo-2022. Ngaleso sikhathi, umthamo wokukhiqiza i-aniline yaseShayina uzofinyelela kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-4.3, kanti iWanhua Chemical nayo izoba ngumkhiqizi we-aniline omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni onamandla okukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi ezimbili.

Ukusetshenziswa kwe-aniline okuphansi kuncane kakhulu. I-aniline engu-80% isetshenziselwa ukukhiqizwa kwe-MDI, i-15% isetshenziswa embonini yezithako zerabha, kanti ezinye zisetshenziswa emikhakheni yodayi, imithi kanye nezibulala-zinambuzane. Ngokwezibalo zamakhemikhali eziku-inthanethi, kusukela ngo-2021 kuya ku-2023, i-MDI izoba nokwanda kwamathani acishe abe yizigidi ezimbili zamandla okukhiqiza futhi izogaya amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.5 zamandla okukhiqiza i-aniline. Izithako zerabha zisetshenziswa kakhulu ekukhiqizweni kwamathayi futhi zixhunywe kakhulu emakethe yezimoto. Enkathini yangemva kobhubhane, kokubili izimoto namathayi kukhuphuke ngezinga elithile. Kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sezithako zerabha sizokhula kancane kancane. Kodwa-ke, ngoSepthemba 2020, i-European Union yamemezela i-aniline njenge-carcinogen yesigaba sesi-2 kanye ne-teratogen yesigaba sesi-2, futhi kunconywa ukuthi kuncishiswe ukusetshenziswa kwayo kwamanye amathoyizi. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinhlobo eziningi zezingubo nazo zifake i-aniline ohlwini lwezinto ezinqunyelwe eminyakeni yamuva. Njengoba izidingo zabathengi zokuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nempilo zanda, ingxenye engezansi ye-aniline izoba ngaphansi kwemikhawulo ethile.

Ngokuphathelene nokungenisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, izwe lami lingumthumeli we-aniline ophelele. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, inani lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe libe ngu-8% womkhiqizo wonyaka. Kodwa-ke, inani lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe eminyakeni emibili edlule libonise ukwehla unyaka nonyaka. Ngaphezu kokwanda kwesidingo sasekhaya, ubhubhane olusha lomqhele, intela eyengeziwe ebekwe yi-United States, kanye nokulwa nokulahla imfucuza eNdiya yizona zizathu eziyinhloko zokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-aniline. Idatha yamasiko ikhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngo-2020 kuzoba ngamathani ayi-158,000, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwama-21%. Amazwe amakhulu athumela kwamanye amazwe afaka iHungary, iNdiya neSpain. I-Wanhua Bosu inedivayisi ye-MDI eHungary, futhi kunesidingo esithile se-aniline yasekhaya. Kodwa-ke, isitshalo saseBosu sihlela ukwandisa umthamo we-aniline kulo nyaka, futhi inani lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe le-aniline yasekhaya lizoqhubeka nokwehla ngaleso sikhathi.

Ngokuvamile, ukwanda okukhulu emakethe ye-aniline kubangelwa izinzuzo eziningi ngokwezindleko, ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo. Esikhathini esifushane, imakethe ikhuphuke kakhulu futhi isengozini yokwehla nganoma yisiphi isikhathi; ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukwehla kusekelwa yisidingo esikhulu se-MDI, Imakethe izoba nethemba eminyakeni eyi-1-2 ezayo. Kodwa-ke, ngokuqiniswa kokuvikelwa kwemvelo yasekhaya kanye nokuqedwa kokuhlanganiswa kwe-aniline-MDI, indawo yokuhlala yezinye izimboni izoncishiswa, futhi ukuhlushwa kwezimboni kulindeleke ukuthi kwande kakhulu.