Kusukela ngo-2022, izici zenkathi ye-off-peak kaphethiloli nodizili ziya ngokuya zingabonakali. Imakethe "yokukhuphuka ngaphezu kokulindelwe, ukwehla ngaphansi kweqiniso" ijwayelekile, ikakhulukazi ngo-2023, lapho imicimbi yezempilo yomphakathi inomthelela omncane emakethe, lesi sici sisobala kakhulu. Umkhuba wemakethe awukona ngokusho kwekhadi elivamile, bese sibikezela imakethe nokuthi sizoqala kuphi?

Izimakethe azihambisani nengxenye yesithathu yalo nyaka kanti ikota yesine yemakethe ibonakale kahle, uma sibheka emuva kwikota yesithathu, uJulayi bekuyisizini engasebenzi kadizili, iShandong amanani entengo kadizili ngokudinga nje ukuba nomthelela omubi uma seyehlile. 6700 yuan/ton, kodwa maphakathi noJulayi nge-oda elifushane ngenxa yokulethwa kwenani elikhulu lezimpahla, ukukhushulwa kwengqondo yemakethe kanye nokulindelwe kwesizini okuphezulu okuqhutshwa amanani akhuphuka ngayo yonke indlela, Futhi ukukhuphuka kwentengo kuthathe isikhathi esingafika kuhhafu nohhafu. izinyanga. Ngemva kokungena enkathini yesiko yesiqongo "yegolide eyisishiyagalolunye yesiliva eyishumi", intengo yehle yonke indlela, isuka ku-8050 yuan/ton ngoSepthemba kuya ku-7350 yuan/ton yamanje, uhla lwama-yuan/ton angu-700.

Ngaphansi kwemakethe engajwayelekile, ngamuphi umbono okufanele sigxile ekubikezeleni imakethe yesikhathi esizayo? Izisekelo? Isimo somqondo? Noma izindaba zemakethe? Ayihambisani nezigaba ezahlukahlukene. Kulesi sigaba, ucwaningo lwengqondo yemakethe nezindaba zemakethe lubaluleke kakhulu kunocwaningo lwezinto eziyisisekelo.

Ngokombono wamanje wemakethe, okuyisisekelo akubaluleki kangako. Eyokuqala ukuthi izindaba ezinhle zokuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela nodizili endaweni yokuhluzwa kusenesikhathi zigaywe kusenesikhathi, futhi imakethe ibingasebenzisa lezi zindaba ukuze iphakamise igagasi, kodwa intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe ayizange yehle yonke indlela, ukubhula umlilo. Okwesibili ukuthi esimweni semboni yemakethe, imakethe kaphethiloli nekadizili isinikezwe ngokweqile, futhi umthamo wamanje wokuklama womoya waseChina kanye ne-vacuum ususondele kumathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1 ngonyaka, futhi ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kuka-10% -20% kuzokwehla. akubangeli ukunikezwa kwemakethe okuqinile. Ngakho-ke, kulesi sigaba semakethe, umthelela oyisisekelo emakethe uhlanjululwe, futhi esikhundleni salokho, imakethe ayinathemba, okusobala kakhulu ngemuva kokuba uwoyela ongahluziwe wehle kakhulu kodwa uphethiloli kanye nodizili akuzange kulandelwe, futhi uphethiloli nodizili akulandelanga ngesikhathi, osekukhuphule ithemba embonini, okuvulela isikhala sokuthi intengo yehle futhi.

Lapho ukubuya kwemakethe sekwephuzile, kuncike ezicini ezimbili, okokuqala, linda amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ukuthi ehle endaweni. Njengamanje, izisekelo eziphelele zikawoyela ongahluziwe ziyawohloka, futhi ipuleti likawoyela ongahluziwe kufanele linake ubungozi bokuqhubeka nokulungisa leli gagasi lenzuzo ngemva kukaJulayi. Futhi umphumela womhlangano wongqongqoshe we-OPEC + ngoNovemba 26, ukunwetshwa komnqamulajuqu noma ukusika okuncane kokukhiqiza kungaqhubeka nokusekela ukuguquguquka okuphezulu kwamanani kawoyela, kodwa ukuphakama okuphelele kulinganiselwe, ngokuphambene nalokho, uma iqala ukukhula kancane kancane. ukukhiqizwa ukuze kunxeshezelwe ukukhiqizwa, uwoyela ongahluziwe ungase ubhekane nezinga elikhulu lengozi ephansi. Ngamafuphi, ingozi engemihle kawoyela ongahluziwe ayikakhululwa. Okwesibili, linda umuzwa wemakethe ukuze uzinze. Uma amanani kaphethiloli nodizili eqhubeka nokwehla, igebe phakathi kukaphethiloli nodizili kanye nokuqhekeka kukawoyela ongahluziwe liphinde lehla lafinyelela ezingeni eliphansi uma kuqhathaniswa, kungase kukhululwe ukungabi nathemba kwemakethe, ukuze kulungiselelwe. igagasi elilandelayo lemakethe, kanye nokuvuthwa kwemizwelo endaweni kungaba nezimo zesikhathi eside zokukhuphuka. Ngokwami, kulindeleke ukuthi igagasi elilandelayo lemakethe lizobe liphakathi kukaDisemba, futhi leli gagasi lemakethe lizothuthukiswa ngokugcinwa kwempahla ngaphambi kokuphela kokwehla okungalungile isikhathi esingaphezu kwezinyanga ezimbili.