Kusukela ngo-2022, izici zesizini engakafiki isikhathi sokukhiqiza uphethiloli kanye nedizili ziya ngokuya zingabonakali. Imakethe "yokukhuphuka ngaphezu kokulindelekile, iwela ngaphansi kweqiniso" ivamile, ikakhulukazi ngo-2023, lapho imicimbi yezempilo yomphakathi ingenawo umthelela omkhulu emakethe, lesi sici sisobala kakhulu. Ukuthambekela kwemakethe akuvumelani nekhadi elivamile, bese sibikezela imakethe nokuthi sizoqala kuphi?

Umkhuba wemakethe ongajwayelekile kwikota yesithathu yalo nyaka kanye nekota yesine yemakethe wabonakala kahle, uma sibheka emuva kwikota yesithathu, uJulayi kwakuyisizini yokuphumula kwedizili yesizini, amanani kadizili eShandong ayedinga nje ukuba nomthelela omubi wake wehla waya ku-6700 yuan/ton, kodwa maphakathi noJulayi ngesikhathi esifushane sokulethwa kwenani elikhulu lezimpahla, ukukhushulwa kwengqondo yemakethe kanye nokulindelwa kwesizini esiphezulu okubangelwa amanani kwakhuphuka yonke indlela, futhi ukwenyuka kwentengo kwaqhubeka inyanga nesigamu. Ngemva kokungena kwisizini yendabuko ephezulu ye-"gold nine silver ten", intengo yehla yonke indlela, kusukela ku-8050 yuan/ton ngoSepthemba kuya ku-7350 yuan/ton yamanje, ububanzi obuyi-700 yuan/ton.

Ngaphansi kwemakethe engajwayelekile, kufanele sigxile ngamuphi umbono ekubikezeleni imakethe yesikhathi esizayo? Izisekelo? Isimo sengqondo? Noma izindaba zemakethe? Akuhambisani nezigaba ezahlukene. Kulesi sigaba, ukutadisha ingqondo yemakethe kanye nezindaba zemakethe kubaluleke kakhulu kunokutadisha izisekelo.

Ngokombono wamanje wemakethe, izisekelo azibalulekanga kangako. Okokuqala ukuthi izindaba ezinhle zokuncipha kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela nodizili endaweni yokuhluza yokuqala sezihlolisiswe kusengaphambili, futhi imakethe ibingasebenzisa lezi zindaba ukuphakamisa igagasi, kodwa intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe ayizange yehle ngokuphelele, yacima umlilo. Okwesibili ukuthi ekuxinekeni kwemboni yemakethe, imakethe kaphethiloli nodizili inikezwe ngokweqile, futhi amandla okuklama amanje omoya kanye ne-vacuum yaseShayina asondele ku-1 billion amathani ngonyaka, futhi ukuncishiswa kokukhiqiza okungu-10%-20% ngeke kubangele ukunikezwa kwemakethe okuqinile. Ngakho-ke, kulesi sigaba semakethe, umthelela oyisisekelo emakethe uncishisiwe, futhi esikhundleni salokho, imakethe ayinathemba, okusobala kakhulu ngemuva kokuba uwoyela ongahluziwe wehle kakhulu kodwa uphethiloli nodizili akulandeli, futhi uphethiloli nodizili akulandeli ngesikhathi, okwandisa ukungabi nathemba kwemboni, kwavula isikhala sokuba intengo iphinde yehle.

Uma imakethe ibuyela emuva sekwephuzile, kuncike ezicini ezimbili, okokuqala, ukulinda amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ehle. Njengamanje, izisekelo eziphelele zikawoyela ongahluziwe ziyawohloka, futhi ipuleti likawoyela ongahluziwe kufanele linake ingozi yokulungiswa okunciphile kwaleli gagasi lenzuzo ngemuva kukaJulayi. Futhi umphumela womhlangano wongqongqoshe be-OPEC+ ngoNovemba 26, ukwelulwa kwesikhathi esibekiwe noma ukunciphisa okuncane kokukhiqiza kungaqhubeka nokusekela ukuguquguquka okuphezulu kwamanani kawoyela, kodwa ukuphakama okuphelele kunqunyelwe, ngokuphambene nalokho, uma kuqala ukwandisa kancane kancane umkhiqizo ukuze kunxeshezelwe ukukhiqizwa, uwoyela ongahluziwe ungabhekana nengozi enkulu yokwehla. Ngamafuphi, ingozi embi kawoyela ongahluziwe ayikakhishwa. Okwesibili, linda umuzwa wemakethe ukuthi uhlale. Uma amanani kaphethiloli nedizili eqhubeka nokwehla, igebe phakathi kophethiloli nedizili kanye nokuqhekeka kukawoyela ongahluziwe liphinde lehle liye ezingeni eliphansi, ukuphelelwa ithemba emakethe kungakhululwa, ukuze kulungiselelwe igagasi elilandelayo lemakethe, futhi isimo sengqondo esiqalayo singaba nezimo zesikhathi eside okufanele zikhuphuke. Mina ngokwami, kulindeleke ukuthi igagasi elilandelayo lemakethe libe maphakathi noDisemba, futhi leli gagasi lemakethe lizokhushulwa ukuqoqwa kwezimpahla ngaphambi kokuphela kokwehla okubi isikhathi esingaphezu kwezinyanga ezimbili.